Win, draw and score chances for Lesotho v Gabon, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lesotho win | 15.2% |
| Draw | 25.7% |
| Gabon win | 59.1% |
| Lesotho or draw (1X) | 40.9% |
| Gabon or draw (X2) | 84.8% |
| Lesotho or Gabon (12) | 74.3% |
| Both teams to score | 36.5% |
| Lesotho clean sheet | 21.8% |
| Gabon clean sheet | 53.4% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lesotho 0-1 Gabon | 17.7% |
| Lesotho 0-2 Gabon | 13.5% |
| Lesotho 0-0 Gabon | 11.6% |
| Lesotho 1-1 Gabon | 11.1% |
| Lesotho 1-2 Gabon | 8.5% |
| Lesotho 1-0 Gabon | 7.3% |
| Lesotho 0-3 Gabon | 6.9% |
| Lesotho 1-3 Gabon | 4.3% |
| Stat | Lesotho | Gabon | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.63 | 1.53 | 2.15 |
| Corners | 3.9 | 5.0 | 8.8 |
| Shots | 6.5 | 10.5 | 17.0 |
| Shots on target | 2.2 | 4.2 | 6.4 |
| Yellow cards | 2.0 | 1.3 | 3.3 |
| Fouls | 12.9 | 11.4 | 24.3 |
| Tackles | 14.5 | 13.5 | 28.1 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 88.4% | 11.6% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 17.2% | 82.8% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 6.8% | 93.2% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 52.0% | 48.1% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 27.2% | 72.8% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 17.9% | 82.1% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 11.1% | 88.9% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 19.6% | 80.5% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 9.6% | 90.4% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 4.1% | 95.9% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 1.5% | 98.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 31.1% | 68.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 19.5% | 80.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 11.3% | 88.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 6.1% | 93.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 42.1% | 58.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 23.8% | 76.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 11.8% | 88.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 5.1% | 94.9% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 25.4% | 74.6% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.0% | 1.0% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 97.1% | 2.9% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 92.9% | 7.1% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 85.4% | 14.6% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 74.4% | 25.6% |
Our model makes Gabon favourites in Lesotho v Gabon on Tuesday 17 November, with a 59% chance of an away win, 26% for the draw and 15% for Lesotho, from projected goals of 1.53 for Gabon and 0.63 for Lesotho.
The most likely score in Lesotho v Gabon is 0-1 at 18%, ahead of 0-2 at 14% and 0-0 at 12%, from our model's projection of 0.63 goals for Lesotho and 1.53 for Gabon, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Lesotho v Gabon, at 37% yes and 64% no, with Lesotho keeping a clean sheet 22% of the time and Gabon 53%, from projected goals of 0.63 and 1.53.
Our model projects 2.15 goals in Lesotho v Gabon, with over 1.5 goals at 63% and over 2.5 at 36%, and two goals the likeliest total at 27%.
Our model expects 8.8 corners in Lesotho v Gabon on Tuesday 17 November, 3.9 for Lesotho and 5.0 for Gabon, putting over 8.5 corners at 52% and over 9.5 at 39%.
Our model expects 3.3 yellow cards in Lesotho v Gabon on Tuesday 17 November, 2.0 for Lesotho and 1.3 for Gabon, putting over 2.5 cards at 64% and over 3.5 at 42%.
The Lesotho v Gabon simulation turns our projections of 0.63 goals for Lesotho and 1.53 for Gabon into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.