Win, draw and score chances for Alaves v Deportivo, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Alaves win | 43.6% |
| Draw | 29.4% |
| Deportivo win | 27.0% |
| Alaves or draw (1X) | 73.0% |
| Deportivo or draw (X2) | 56.4% |
| Alaves or Deportivo (12) | 70.6% |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% |
| Alaves clean sheet | 36.6% |
| Deportivo clean sheet | 26.0% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Alaves 1-1 Deportivo | 13.9% |
| Alaves 1-0 Deportivo | 11.9% |
| Alaves 0-0 Deportivo | 10.5% |
| Alaves 2-1 Deportivo | 8.7% |
| Alaves 2-0 Deportivo | 8.6% |
| Alaves 0-1 Deportivo | 8.6% |
| Alaves 1-2 Deportivo | 6.5% |
| Alaves 0-2 Deportivo | 4.8% |
| Stat | Alaves | Deportivo | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 | 1.01 | 2.35 |
| Corners | 5.3 | 4.4 | 9.7 |
| Shots | 13.8 | 10.1 | 23.9 |
| Shots on target | 4.4 | 3.5 | 7.9 |
| Yellow cards | 2.3 | 2.3 | 4.6 |
| Fouls | 13.2 | 11.6 | 24.8 |
| Tackles | 15.4 | 17.2 | 32.7 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 89.5% | 10.5% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 21.1% | 78.9% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 9.0% | 91.0% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 38.3% | 61.7% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 27.2% | 72.8% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 18.3% | 81.7% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 86.9% | 13.1% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 44.1% | 56.0% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 29.1% | 70.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 67.9% | 32.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 17.8% | 82.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 83.7% | 16.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 31.3% | 68.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 18.1% | 81.9% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 85.7% | 14.4% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 28.4% | 71.6% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.9% | 0.1% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 99.6% | 0.4% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 98.8% | 1.2% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 96.8% | 3.2% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 92.8% | 7.2% |
Our model makes Alaves favourites in Alaves v Deportivo on Saturday 21 November, with a 44% chance of a home win, 29% for the draw and 27% for Deportivo, from projected goals of 1.35 for Alaves and 1.01 for Deportivo.
The most likely score in Alaves v Deportivo is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 at 12% and 0-0 at 10%, from our model's projection of 1.35 goals for Alaves and 1.01 for Deportivo, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Alaves v Deportivo, at 48% yes and 52% no, with Alaves keeping a clean sheet 37% of the time and Deportivo 26%, from projected goals of 1.35 and 1.01.
Our model projects 2.35 goals in Alaves v Deportivo, with over 1.5 goals at 69% and over 2.5 at 42%, and two goals the likeliest total at 27%.
Our model expects 9.7 corners in Alaves v Deportivo on Saturday 21 November, 5.3 for Alaves and 4.4 for Deportivo, putting over 9.5 corners at 51% and over 10.5 at 38%.
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards in Alaves v Deportivo on Saturday 21 November, 2.3 for Alaves and 2.3 for Deportivo, putting over 4.5 cards at 49% and over 5.5 at 31%.
The Alaves v Deportivo simulation turns our projections of 1.35 goals for Alaves and 1.01 for Deportivo into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.