Win, draw and score chances for Norwich v Cardiff, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Norwich win | 54.8% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
| Cardiff win | 23.8% |
| Norwich or draw (1X) | 76.2% |
| Cardiff or draw (X2) | 45.2% |
| Norwich or Cardiff (12) | 78.6% |
| Both teams to score | 68.8% |
| Norwich clean sheet | 23.6% |
| Cardiff clean sheet | 10.7% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Norwich 2-1 Cardiff | 9.1% |
| Norwich 1-1 Cardiff | 8.8% |
| Norwich 3-1 Cardiff | 6.8% |
| Norwich 2-2 Cardiff | 6.6% |
| Norwich 2-0 Cardiff | 6.3% |
| Norwich 1-2 Cardiff | 5.9% |
| Norwich 1-0 Cardiff | 5.0% |
| Norwich 3-2 Cardiff | 4.9% |
| Stat | Norwich | Cardiff | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.23 | 1.44 | 3.68 |
| Corners | 5.4 | 4.4 | 9.8 |
| Shots | 18.7 | 12.5 | 31.2 |
| Shots on target | 6.0 | 4.3 | 10.3 |
| Yellow cards | 1.7 | 1.8 | 3.6 |
| Fouls | 10.9 | 9.7 | 20.5 |
| Tackles | 16.4 | 16.2 | 32.6 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 96.9% | 3.2% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 88.8% | 11.2% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 30.8% | 69.2% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 76.0% | 24.0% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 28.0% | 72.0% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 18.9% | 81.1% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 99.3% | 0.7% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 97.8% | 2.2% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 94.7% | 5.3% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 88.9% | 11.1% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 79.9% | 20.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 88.6% | 11.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 80.4% | 19.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 69.0% | 31.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 28.6% | 71.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 15.0% | 85.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 7.0% | 93.0% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 13.8% | 86.2% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 6.8% | 93.2% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.9% | 0.1% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 99.6% | 0.4% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 98.8% | 1.2% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 96.8% | 3.2% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 92.8% | 7.2% |
Our model makes Norwich favourites in Norwich v Cardiff on Saturday 21 November, with a 55% chance of a home win, 21% for the draw and 24% for Cardiff, from projected goals of 2.23 for Norwich and 1.44 for Cardiff.
The most likely score in Norwich v Cardiff is 2-1 at 9%, ahead of 1-1 at 9% and 3-1 at 7%, from our model's projection of 2.23 goals for Norwich and 1.44 for Cardiff, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 69% of the outcomes our model gives Norwich v Cardiff, making yes the likelier answer, with Norwich keeping a clean sheet 24% of the time and Cardiff 11%, from projected goals of 2.23 and 1.44.
Our model projects 3.68 goals in Norwich v Cardiff, with over 3.5 goals at 50% and over 4.5 at 31%, and three goals the likeliest total at 21%.
Our model expects 9.8 corners in Norwich v Cardiff on Saturday 21 November, 5.4 for Norwich and 4.4 for Cardiff, putting over 9.5 corners at 52% and over 10.5 at 39%.
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards in Norwich v Cardiff on Saturday 21 November, 1.7 for Norwich and 1.8 for Cardiff, putting over 3.5 cards at 48% and over 4.5 at 29%.
The Norwich v Cardiff simulation turns our projections of 2.23 goals for Norwich and 1.44 for Cardiff into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.