Win, draw and score chances for Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers win | 34.1% |
| Draw | 26.1% |
| Chesterfield win | 39.8% |
| Bristol Rovers or draw (1X) | 60.3% |
| Chesterfield or draw (X2) | 65.9% |
| Bristol Rovers or Chesterfield (12) | 73.9% |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% |
| Bristol Rovers clean sheet | 21.3% |
| Chesterfield clean sheet | 24.2% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers 1-1 Chesterfield | 12.2% |
| Bristol Rovers 1-2 Chesterfield | 8.7% |
| Bristol Rovers 2-1 Chesterfield | 8.0% |
| Bristol Rovers 0-1 Chesterfield | 7.1% |
| Bristol Rovers 1-0 Chesterfield | 6.5% |
| Bristol Rovers 2-2 Chesterfield | 6.2% |
| Bristol Rovers 0-2 Chesterfield | 6.2% |
| Bristol Rovers 0-0 Chesterfield | 6.0% |
| Stat | Bristol Rovers | Chesterfield | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 | 1.54 | 2.96 |
| Corners | 4.5 | 4.5 | 9.0 |
| Shots | 13.3 | 13.5 | 26.8 |
| Shots on target | 4.3 | 4.3 | 8.7 |
| Yellow cards | 2.4 | 2.1 | 4.5 |
| Fouls | 11.9 | 9.8 | 21.7 |
| Tackles | 14.7 | 13.6 | 28.3 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 94.0% | 6.0% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 80.4% | 19.6% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 17.9% | 82.2% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 29.8% | 70.2% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 12.7% | 87.3% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 95.1% | 4.9% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 89.0% | 11.0% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 79.2% | 20.8% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 76.2% | 23.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 25.6% | 74.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 82.3% | 17.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 29.2% | 70.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 16.5% | 83.5% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 66.8% | 33.2% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 49.9% | 50.2% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 33.5% | 66.6% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 20.1% | 79.9% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 10.7% | 89.3% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.1% | 0.9% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 97.4% | 2.6% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 93.5% | 6.5% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 86.5% | 13.5% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 76.0% | 24.0% |
Our model makes Chesterfield favourites in Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield on Saturday 14 November, with a 40% chance of an away win, 26% for the draw and 34% for Bristol Rovers, from projected goals of 1.54 for Chesterfield and 1.42 for Bristol Rovers.
The most likely score in Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 at 9% and 2-1 at 8%, from our model's projection of 1.42 goals for Bristol Rovers and 1.54 for Chesterfield, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 60% of the outcomes our model gives Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield, making yes the likelier answer, with Bristol Rovers keeping a clean sheet 21% of the time and Chesterfield 24%, from projected goals of 1.42 and 1.54.
Our model projects 2.96 goals in Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield, with over 2.5 goals at 57% and over 3.5 at 34%, and two goals the likeliest total at 24%.
Our model expects 9.0 corners in Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield on Saturday 14 November, 4.5 for Bristol Rovers and 4.5 for Chesterfield, putting over 8.5 corners at 55% and over 9.5 at 42%.
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards in Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield on Saturday 14 November, 2.4 for Bristol Rovers and 2.1 for Chesterfield, putting over 3.5 cards at 65% and over 4.5 at 46%.
The Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield simulation turns our projections of 1.42 goals for Bristol Rovers and 1.54 for Chesterfield into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.