Win, draw and score chances for Swindon v Grimsby, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Swindon win | 28.0% |
| Draw | 24.8% |
| Grimsby win | 47.3% |
| Swindon or draw (1X) | 52.7% |
| Grimsby or draw (X2) | 72.0% |
| Swindon or Grimsby (12) | 75.2% |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% |
| Swindon clean sheet | 16.9% |
| Grimsby clean sheet | 26.4% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Swindon 1-1 Grimsby | 11.3% |
| Swindon 1-2 Grimsby | 9.4% |
| Swindon 0-1 Grimsby | 7.1% |
| Swindon 0-2 Grimsby | 7.1% |
| Swindon 2-1 Grimsby | 7.0% |
| Swindon 2-2 Grimsby | 6.3% |
| Swindon 1-3 Grimsby | 5.6% |
| Swindon 0-0 Grimsby | 5.2% |
| Stat | Swindon | Grimsby | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 | 1.78 | 3.11 |
| Corners | 5.1 | 5.4 | 10.5 |
| Shots | 12.2 | 14.8 | 27.1 |
| Shots on target | 4.1 | 4.9 | 9.1 |
| Yellow cards | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
| Fouls | 9.9 | 9.9 | 19.7 |
| Tackles | 15.5 | 15.8 | 31.3 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 94.8% | 5.2% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 82.5% | 17.5% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 20.4% | 79.6% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 82.4% | 17.7% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 48.3% | 51.8% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 26.1% | 73.9% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 95.7% | 4.3% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 90.1% | 9.9% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 80.8% | 19.2% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 29.9% | 70.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 71.7% | 28.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 17.2% | 82.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 8.3% | 91.7% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 19.5% | 80.5% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 10.1% | 89.9% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 4.6% | 95.4% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.8% | 0.2% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 99.3% | 0.7% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 97.9% | 2.2% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 94.7% | 5.3% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 89.0% | 11.0% |
Our model makes Grimsby favourites in Swindon v Grimsby on Saturday 14 November, with a 47% chance of an away win, 25% for the draw and 28% for Swindon, from projected goals of 1.78 for Grimsby and 1.33 for Swindon.
The most likely score in Swindon v Grimsby is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-2 at 9% and 0-1 at 7%, from our model's projection of 1.33 goals for Swindon and 1.78 for Grimsby, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 62% of the outcomes our model gives Swindon v Grimsby, making yes the likelier answer, with Swindon keeping a clean sheet 17% of the time and Grimsby 26%, from projected goals of 1.33 and 1.78.
Our model projects 3.11 goals in Swindon v Grimsby, with over 2.5 goals at 60% and over 3.5 at 38%, and two and three goals the likeliest totals at 22% each.
Our model expects 10.5 corners in Swindon v Grimsby on Saturday 14 November, 5.1 for Swindon and 5.4 for Grimsby, putting over 10.5 corners at 48% and over 11.5 at 36%.
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards in Swindon v Grimsby on Saturday 14 November, 1.9 for Swindon and 1.8 for Grimsby, putting over 3.5 cards at 51% and over 4.5 at 32%.
The Swindon v Grimsby simulation turns our projections of 1.33 goals for Swindon and 1.78 for Grimsby into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.