Win, draw and score chances for Newport v Swindon, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Newport win | 47.5% |
| Draw | 27.2% |
| Swindon win | 25.2% |
| Newport or draw (1X) | 74.8% |
| Swindon or draw (X2) | 52.5% |
| Newport or Swindon (12) | 72.8% |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% |
| Newport clean sheet | 34.4% |
| Swindon clean sheet | 21.3% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Newport 1-1 Swindon | 13.0% |
| Newport 1-0 Swindon | 10.4% |
| Newport 2-1 Swindon | 9.4% |
| Newport 2-0 Swindon | 8.8% |
| Newport 0-0 Swindon | 8.2% |
| Newport 0-1 Swindon | 6.9% |
| Newport 1-2 Swindon | 6.4% |
| Newport 2-2 Swindon | 5.0% |
| Stat | Newport | Swindon | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 | 1.07 | 2.61 |
| Corners | 6.4 | 4.3 | 10.6 |
| Shots | 15.0 | 10.4 | 25.4 |
| Shots on target | 4.7 | 3.4 | 8.1 |
| Yellow cards | 1.3 | 2.1 | 3.4 |
| Fouls | 9.6 | 10.8 | 20.3 |
| Tackles | 14.3 | 15.5 | 29.8 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 91.8% | 8.2% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 26.7% | 73.3% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 12.5% | 87.6% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 83.0% | 17.0% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 73.2% | 26.8% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 49.4% | 50.7% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 27.0% | 73.0% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 91.8% | 8.2% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 83.2% | 16.8% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 70.0% | 30.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 29.7% | 70.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 19.5% | 80.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 24.6% | 75.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 12.3% | 87.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 5.4% | 94.6% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 23.5% | 76.5% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 12.8% | 87.2% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 6.2% | 93.9% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.6% | 0.4% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.6% | 1.4% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 96.1% | 3.9% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 91.3% | 8.7% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 83.2% | 16.8% |
Our model makes Newport favourites in Newport v Swindon on Saturday 21 November, with a 48% chance of a home win, 27% for the draw and 25% for Swindon, from projected goals of 1.55 for Newport and 1.07 for Swindon.
The most likely score in Newport v Swindon is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 at 10% and 2-1 at 9%, from our model's projection of 1.55 goals for Newport and 1.07 for Swindon, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 53% of the outcomes our model gives Newport v Swindon, making yes the likelier answer, with Newport keeping a clean sheet 34% of the time and Swindon 21%, from projected goals of 1.55 and 1.07.
Our model projects 2.61 goals in Newport v Swindon, with over 2.5 goals at 49% and over 3.5 at 27%, and two goals the likeliest total at 26%.
Our model expects 10.6 corners in Newport v Swindon on Saturday 21 November, 6.4 for Newport and 4.3 for Swindon, putting over 10.5 corners at 49% and over 11.5 at 37%.
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards in Newport v Swindon on Saturday 21 November, 1.3 for Newport and 2.1 for Swindon, putting over 2.5 cards at 65% and over 3.5 at 43%.
The Newport v Swindon simulation turns our projections of 1.55 goals for Newport and 1.07 for Swindon into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.