Win, draw and score chances for Chelsea v Leeds, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 49.7% |
| Draw | 25.2% |
| Leeds win | 25.1% |
| Chelsea or draw (1X) | 74.9% |
| Leeds or draw (X2) | 50.3% |
| Chelsea or Leeds (12) | 74.8% |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 31.9% |
| Leeds clean sheet | 18.4% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Chelsea 1-1 Leeds | 11.9% |
| Chelsea 2-1 Leeds | 9.6% |
| Chelsea 1-0 Leeds | 9.4% |
| Chelsea 2-0 Leeds | 8.4% |
| Chelsea 1-2 Leeds | 6.5% |
| Chelsea 0-0 Leeds | 6.4% |
| Chelsea 0-1 Leeds | 6.1% |
| Chelsea 2-2 Leeds | 5.5% |
| Stat | Chelsea | Leeds | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 | 1.14 | 2.84 |
| Corners | 5.8 | 4.0 | 9.8 |
| Shots | 15.3 | 10.7 | 26.0 |
| Shots on target | 4.9 | 3.6 | 8.5 |
| Yellow cards | 1.8 | 2.4 | 4.1 |
| Fouls | 10.0 | 12.3 | 22.3 |
| Tackles | 12.9 | 14.5 | 27.4 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 93.6% | 6.4% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 15.8% | 84.2% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 51.4% | 48.7% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 38.9% | 61.1% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 27.8% | 72.2% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 18.8% | 81.3% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 93.5% | 6.5% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 86.1% | 13.9% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 74.8% | 25.2% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 74.8% | 25.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 62.0% | 38.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 35.2% | 64.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 24.1% | 75.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 23.6% | 76.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 71.3% | 28.7% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 24.1% | 75.9% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 13.5% | 86.5% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 98.7% | 1.4% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 96.2% | 3.8% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 91.1% | 9.0% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 70.2% | 29.8% |
Our model makes Chelsea favourites in Chelsea v Leeds on Saturday 21 November, with a 50% chance of a home win, 25% for the draw and 25% for Leeds, from projected goals of 1.69 for Chelsea and 1.14 for Leeds.
The most likely score in Chelsea v Leeds is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 at 10% and 1-0 at 9%, from our model's projection of 1.69 goals for Chelsea and 1.14 for Leeds, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 56% of the outcomes our model gives Chelsea v Leeds, making yes the likelier answer, with Chelsea keeping a clean sheet 32% of the time and Leeds 18%, from projected goals of 1.69 and 1.14.
Our model projects 2.84 goals in Chelsea v Leeds, with over 2.5 goals at 54% and over 3.5 at 32%, and two goals the likeliest total at 24%.
Our model expects 9.8 corners in Chelsea v Leeds on Saturday 21 November, 5.8 for Chelsea and 4.0 for Leeds, putting over 9.5 corners at 51% and over 10.5 at 39%.
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards in Chelsea v Leeds on Saturday 21 November, 1.8 for Chelsea and 2.4 for Leeds, putting over 3.5 cards at 59% and over 4.5 at 40%.
The Chelsea v Leeds simulation turns our projections of 1.69 goals for Chelsea and 1.14 for Leeds into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.