Win, draw and score chances for Newcastle v Arsenal, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 16.5% |
| Draw | 23.9% |
| Arsenal win | 59.6% |
| Newcastle or draw (1X) | 40.4% |
| Arsenal or draw (X2) | 83.5% |
| Newcastle or Arsenal (12) | 76.1% |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% |
| Newcastle clean sheet | 16.7% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 43.5% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Newcastle 0-1 Arsenal | 12.5% |
| Newcastle 0-2 Arsenal | 11.6% |
| Newcastle 1-1 Arsenal | 11.4% |
| Newcastle 1-2 Arsenal | 9.7% |
| Newcastle 0-0 Arsenal | 7.8% |
| Newcastle 0-3 Arsenal | 7.0% |
| Newcastle 1-3 Arsenal | 5.8% |
| Newcastle 1-0 Arsenal | 5.5% |
| Stat | Newcastle | Arsenal | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.83 | 1.79 | 2.62 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 4.9 | 9.7 |
| Shots | 10.1 | 15.0 | 25.1 |
| Shots on target | 3.1 | 4.9 | 8.0 |
| Yellow cards | 2.2 | 2.3 | 4.5 |
| Fouls | 11.2 | 10.7 | 21.9 |
| Tackles | 13.8 | 14.3 | 28.0 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 92.2% | 7.8% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 74.3% | 25.7% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 26.9% | 73.1% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 12.6% | 87.4% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 75.3% | 24.8% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 27.1% | 72.9% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 18.2% | 81.8% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 91.1% | 8.9% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 81.9% | 18.1% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 18.7% | 81.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 82.9% | 17.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 17.2% | 82.8% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 68.7% | 31.3% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 21.7% | 78.3% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 11.8% | 88.2% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.0% | 1.0% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 97.0% | 3.0% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 92.8% | 7.2% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 85.3% | 14.7% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 74.2% | 25.8% |
Our model makes Arsenal favourites in Newcastle v Arsenal on Saturday 21 November, with a 60% chance of an away win, 24% for the draw and 16% for Newcastle, from projected goals of 1.79 for Arsenal and 0.83 for Newcastle.
The most likely score in Newcastle v Arsenal is 0-1 at 12%, ahead of 0-2 at 12% and 1-1 at 11%, from our model's projection of 0.83 goals for Newcastle and 1.79 for Arsenal, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Newcastle v Arsenal, at 48% yes and 52% no, with Newcastle keeping a clean sheet 17% of the time and Arsenal 44%, from projected goals of 0.83 and 1.79.
Our model projects 2.62 goals in Newcastle v Arsenal, with over 2.5 goals at 49% and over 3.5 at 27%, and two goals the likeliest total at 26%.
Our model expects 9.7 corners in Newcastle v Arsenal on Saturday 21 November, 4.8 for Newcastle and 4.9 for Arsenal, putting over 9.5 corners at 51% and over 10.5 at 38%.
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards in Newcastle v Arsenal on Saturday 21 November, 2.2 for Newcastle and 2.3 for Arsenal, putting over 4.5 cards at 47% and over 5.5 at 30%.
The Newcastle v Arsenal simulation turns our projections of 0.83 goals for Newcastle and 1.79 for Arsenal into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.