Win, draw and score chances for Ipswich v Villa, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 33.2% |
| Draw | 24.5% |
| Villa win | 42.3% |
| Ipswich or draw (1X) | 57.7% |
| Villa or draw (X2) | 66.8% |
| Ipswich or Villa (12) | 75.5% |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% |
| Ipswich clean sheet | 18.5% |
| Villa clean sheet | 22.9% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ipswich 1-1 Villa | 11.1% |
| Ipswich 1-2 Villa | 8.9% |
| Ipswich 2-1 Villa | 7.8% |
| Ipswich 0-1 Villa | 6.6% |
| Ipswich 2-2 Villa | 6.6% |
| Ipswich 0-2 Villa | 6.0% |
| Ipswich 1-0 Villa | 5.7% |
| Ipswich 1-3 Villa | 5.0% |
| Stat | Ipswich | Villa | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 | 1.69 | 3.16 |
| Corners | 4.4 | 4.7 | 9.1 |
| Shots | 13.7 | 14.4 | 28.0 |
| Shots on target | 4.4 | 4.6 | 9.0 |
| Yellow cards | 1.8 | 2.0 | 3.7 |
| Fouls | 10.5 | 10.8 | 21.3 |
| Tackles | 15.9 | 15.9 | 31.8 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 95.3% | 4.8% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 82.9% | 17.1% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 39.0% | 61.1% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 21.3% | 78.7% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 68.7% | 31.3% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 20.6% | 79.4% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 13.1% | 86.9% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 97.0% | 3.0% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 92.8% | 7.2% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 85.3% | 14.7% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 79.0% | 21.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 72.2% | 27.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 51.5% | 48.6% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 17.6% | 82.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 8.6% | 91.5% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 30.8% | 69.3% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 18.0% | 82.0% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 9.4% | 90.6% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.8% | 0.2% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 98.2% | 1.8% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 95.6% | 4.4% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 90.5% | 9.5% |
Our model makes Villa favourites in Ipswich v Villa on Saturday 28 November, with a 42% chance of an away win, 25% for the draw and 33% for Ipswich, from projected goals of 1.69 for Villa and 1.48 for Ipswich.
The most likely score in Ipswich v Villa is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-2 at 9% and 2-1 at 8%, from our model's projection of 1.48 goals for Ipswich and 1.69 for Villa, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 63% of the outcomes our model gives Ipswich v Villa, making yes the likelier answer, with Ipswich keeping a clean sheet 18% of the time and Villa 23%, from projected goals of 1.48 and 1.69.
Our model projects 3.16 goals in Ipswich v Villa, with over 2.5 goals at 61% and over 3.5 at 39%, and two and three goals the likeliest totals at 22% each.
Our model expects 9.1 corners in Ipswich v Villa on Saturday 28 November, 4.4 for Ipswich and 4.7 for Villa, putting over 8.5 corners at 56% and over 9.5 at 42%.
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards in Ipswich v Villa on Saturday 28 November, 1.8 for Ipswich and 2.0 for Villa, putting over 3.5 cards at 51% and over 4.5 at 32%.
The Ipswich v Villa simulation turns our projections of 1.48 goals for Ipswich and 1.69 for Villa into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.