Win, draw and score chances for Belgium v Italy, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Belgium win | 49.7% |
| Draw | 23.7% |
| Italy win | 26.7% |
| Belgium or draw (1X) | 73.3% |
| Italy or draw (X2) | 50.4% |
| Belgium or Italy (12) | 76.3% |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% |
| Belgium clean sheet | 29.9% |
| Italy clean sheet | 17.7% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Belgium 1-1 Italy | 11.1% |
| Belgium 2-1 Italy | 9.6% |
| Belgium 1-0 Italy | 9.2% |
| Belgium 2-0 Italy | 7.9% |
| Belgium 1-2 Italy | 6.7% |
| Belgium 0-1 Italy | 6.4% |
| Belgium 2-2 Italy | 5.8% |
| Belgium 3-1 Italy | 5.5% |
| Stat | Belgium | Italy | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 | 1.21 | 2.94 |
| Corners | 5.7 | 4.4 | 10.1 |
| Shots | 15.5 | 12.7 | 28.3 |
| Shots on target | 5.7 | 4.5 | 10.1 |
| Yellow cards | 2.0 | 2.1 | 4.1 |
| Fouls | 12.3 | 11.8 | 24.1 |
| Tackles | 12.8 | 14.9 | 27.6 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 94.7% | 5.3% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 79.2% | 20.9% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 17.5% | 82.6% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 78.7% | 21.3% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 31.3% | 68.7% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 21.7% | 78.3% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 97.3% | 2.7% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 93.4% | 6.6% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 86.3% | 13.7% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 75.6% | 24.4% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 87.7% | 12.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 79.0% | 21.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 77.4% | 22.6% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 22.9% | 77.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 12.0% | 88.0% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 82.3% | 17.7% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 37.4% | 62.7% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 23.7% | 76.3% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 98.8% | 1.2% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 96.5% | 3.5% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 91.8% | 8.2% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 83.6% | 16.4% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 71.8% | 28.2% |
Our model makes Belgium favourites in Belgium v Italy on Sunday 15 November, with a 49% chance of a home win, 24% for the draw and 27% for Italy, from projected goals of 1.73 for Belgium and 1.21 for Italy.
The most likely score in Belgium v Italy is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 at 10% and 1-0 at 9%, from our model's projection of 1.73 goals for Belgium and 1.21 for Italy, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 58% of the outcomes our model gives Belgium v Italy, making yes the likelier answer, with Belgium keeping a clean sheet 30% of the time and Italy 18%, from projected goals of 1.73 and 1.21.
Our model projects 2.94 goals in Belgium v Italy, with over 2.5 goals at 56% and over 3.5 at 34%, and two goals the likeliest total at 23%.
Our model expects 10.1 corners in Belgium v Italy on Sunday 15 November, 5.7 for Belgium and 4.4 for Italy, putting over 9.5 corners at 55% and over 10.5 at 43%.
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards in Belgium v Italy on Sunday 15 November, 2.0 for Belgium and 2.1 for Italy, putting over 3.5 cards at 58% and over 4.5 at 39%.
The Belgium v Italy simulation turns our projections of 1.73 goals for Belgium and 1.21 for Italy into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.