No, Westerlo have taken 27 points over their last 20 Belgian Pro League games, within 1.21 of the 28.21 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Westerlo create 1.54 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Belgian Pro League games, 30.85 in all, and have scored 35 goals from those chances, 4.15 more than that xG would expect.
Westerlo allow 1.57 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Belgian Pro League games, 31.38 in all, and have conceded 36 goals from those chances, 4.62 more than that xGA would expect.
Nacho Ferri has the most expected goals (xG) for Westerlo over their last 20 Belgian Pro League games, 3.87 xG in 10 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; Shunsuke Saito is next with 3.23 xG.
Westerlo's results and their chances agree, within 1.2 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 30.85 | 35 | +4.15 | 31.38 | 36 | -4.62 | 28.21 | 27 | -1.21 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 15.30 | 21 | +5.70 | 18.12 | 21 | -2.88 | 12.69 | 13 | +0.31 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 10.40 | 17 | +6.60 | 6.59 | 5 | +1.59 | 9.25 | 13 | +3.75 |
| Home | 10 | 15.02 | 22 | +6.98 | 17.30 | 23 | -5.70 | 12.59 | 11 | -1.59 |
| Away | 10 | 15.83 | 13 | -2.83 | 14.08 | 13 | +1.08 | 15.62 | 16 | +0.38 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Belgian Pro League | Antwerp (H) | 5-1 | 2.47 | 1.14 | 2.17 | 3 | W |
| 20 Sep | Belgian Pro League | Sint-Truiden (A) | 0-2 | 2.19 | 2.03 | 1.49 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | Belgian Pro League | Standard (H) | 4-2 | 1.38 | 1.51 | 1.29 | 3 | L |
| 5 Sep | Belgian Pro League | Mechelen (A) | 0-4 | 2.16 | 0.61 | 2.37 | 3 | W |
| 30 Aug | Belgian Pro League | Zulte-Waregem (H) | 2-2 | 2.20 | 1.30 | 1.93 | 1 | W |
| 23 Aug | Belgian Pro League | Lommel SK (A) | 4-0 | 0.88 | 1.17 | 1.13 | 0 | L |
| 15 Aug | Belgian Pro League | Genk (A) | 3-2 | 1.08 | 4.09 | 0.23 | 0 | L |
| 8 Aug | Belgian Pro League | Union SG (H) | 1-5 | 0.89 | 2.08 | 0.66 | 0 | L |
| 23 May | Belgian Pro League | Antwerp (A) | 2-0 | 0.54 | 1.75 | 0.54 | 0 | L |
| 19 May | Belgian Pro League | Standard (H) | 1-2 | 1.51 | 2.44 | 0.88 | 0 | L |
| 16 May | Belgian Pro League | Charleroi (A) | 0-1 | 1.23 | 0.93 | 1.58 | 3 | W |
| 10 May | Belgian Pro League | Genk (A) | 3-0 | 1.64 | 1.18 | 1.69 | 0 | W |
| 2 May | Belgian Pro League | OH Leuven (H) | 3-3 | 1.62 | 1.74 | 1.31 | 1 | L |
| 25 Apr | Belgian Pro League | Antwerp (H) | 2-4 | 0.81 | 2.88 | 0.35 | 0 | L |
| 21 Apr | Belgian Pro League | OH Leuven (A) | 0-2 | 1.71 | 0.84 | 1.98 | 3 | W |
| 18 Apr | Belgian Pro League | Genk (H) | 1-2 | 1.30 | 2.01 | 0.95 | 0 | L |
| 11 Apr | Belgian Pro League | Standard (A) | 1-2 | 2.19 | 0.88 | 2.21 | 3 | W |
| 5 Apr | Belgian Pro League | Charleroi (H) | 2-0 | 2.11 | 1.02 | 2.07 | 3 | W |
| 22 Mar | Belgian Pro League | Standard (A) | 0-0 | 2.21 | 0.60 | 2.40 | 1 | W |
| 14 Mar | Belgian Pro League | Club Brugge (H) | 1-2 | 0.73 | 1.18 | 0.98 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Bassette | attacker | 8 | 569 | 3.05 | 5 | +1.95 | 0.48 |
| Dylan Ourega | defender | 11 | 791 | 0.95 | 2 | +1.05 | 0.11 |
| Lasse Flø | defender | 8 | 526 | 0.05 | 1 | +0.95 | 0.01 |
| Isa Sakamoto | midfielder | 18 | 1413 | 2.17 | 3 | +0.83 | 0.14 |
| Shunsuke Saito | attacker | 20 | 1293 | 3.23 | 4 | +0.77 | 0.23 |
| Thomas Van den Keybus | midfielder | 13 | 301 | 0.55 | 1 | +0.46 | 0.16 |
| Allahyar Sayyadmanesh | attacker | 6 | 459 | 1.56 | 2 | +0.44 | 0.31 |
| Cisse Sandra | midfielder | 8 | 719 | 1.62 | 2 | +0.38 | 0.20 |
| Amando Lapage | defender | 14 | 1025 | 0.66 | 1 | +0.34 | 0.06 |
| Arthur Piedfort | midfielder | 11 | 927 | 0.73 | 1 | +0.27 | 0.07 |
| Seiji Kimura | defender | 16 | 1434 | 0.74 | 1 | +0.26 | 0.05 |
| Afonso Patrão | attacker | 9 | 153 | 0.76 | 1 | +0.24 | 0.45 |
| Nacho Ferri | attacker | 10 | 851 | 3.87 | 4 | +0.13 | 0.41 |
| Doğucan Haspolat | midfielder | 11 | 965 | 1.45 | 1 | -0.45 | 0.14 |
| Lucas Mbamba | defender | 12 | 608 | 0.57 | 0 | -0.57 | 0.08 |
| Emin Bayram | defender | 11 | 910 | 1.77 | 1 | -0.77 | 0.17 |
| Reda Laalaoui | midfielder | 8 | 253 | 0.81 | 0 | -0.81 | 0.29 |
| Cameron Congreve | midfielder | 6 | 492 | 1.21 | 0 | -1.21 | 0.22 |
| Josimar Alcócer | attacker | 11 | 936 | 1.23 | 0 | -1.23 | 0.12 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 12 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 14.5 | 22 | +7.5 |
| 2 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 8 | 16.3 | 22 | 9.6 | 4 | 14.8 | 20 | +5.2 |
| 3 | Sporting Charleroi | 8 | 16.3 | 16 | 8.3 | 7 | 15.9 | 21 | +5.1 |
| 4 | Club Brugge | 8 | 22.6 | 19 | 9.7 | 4 | 16.7 | 21 | +4.3 |
| 5 | Lommel SK | 8 | 8.8 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 8.3 | 11 | +2.7 |
| 6 | SK Beveren | 8 | 8.4 | 8 | 15.8 | 14 | 6.9 | 9 | +2.1 |
| 7 | Westerlo | 8 | 13.3 | 20 | 13.9 | 17 | 11.3 | 13 | +1.7 |
| 8 | Anderlecht | 8 | 13.6 | 9 | 7.2 | 6 | 14.9 | 16 | +1.1 |
| 9 | Zulte-Waregem | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11.4 | 9 | 10.1 | 11 | +0.9 |
| 10 | Antwerp | 8 | 11 | 12 | 18.8 | 20 | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| 11 | Genk | 8 | 14.3 | 16 | 10.2 | 12 | 12.9 | 12 | -0.9 |
| 12 | Standard Liège | 8 | 14.6 | 13 | 12.7 | 13 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 13 | Mechelen | 8 | 9.6 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 8.6 | 6 | -2.6 |
| 14 | La Louvière | 8 | 10.2 | 8 | 18.1 | 18 | 7.3 | 4 | -3.3 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 10.5 | 6 | 17.1 | 14 | 8.4 | 5 | -3.4 |
| 16 | KV Kortrijk | 8 | 8.1 | 2 | 15.3 | 18 | 7.2 | 3 | -4.2 |
| 17 | Sint-Truiden | 8 | 15.8 | 15 | 12.7 | 16 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 11.8 | 9 | 12.4 | 16 | 10.5 | 3 | -7.5 |