Tromsø xG 2026/2027

Tromsø xG Questions

Are Tromsø overperforming their xG this season?

No, Tromsø have taken 40 points over 23 Eliteserien games in 2026/2027, within 2.60 of the 37.40 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.

What is Tromsø's xG per game this season?

Tromsø create 1.71 expected goals (xG) per game over 23 Eliteserien games in 2026/2027, 39.36 in all, and have scored 42 goals from those chances, 2.64 more than that xG would expect.

What is Tromsø's xGA per game this season?

Tromsø allow 1.41 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 23 Eliteserien games in 2026/2027, 32.39 in all, and have conceded 31 goals from those chances, 1.39 fewer than that xGA would expect.

Who has the most xG for Tromsø this season?

Heine Åsen Larsen has the most expected goals (xG) for Tromsø over 23 Eliteserien games in 2026/2027, 11.94 xG in 23 appearances, and has scored 10 goals; Jens Hjertø-Dahl is next with 4.70 xG.

Tromsø expected goals 2026/2027: 2026/2027

Games: 23
Expected goals (xG): 39.36
Goals scored: 42
Goals minus xG: +2.64
Expected goals against (xGA): 32.39
Goals conceded: 31
xGA minus goals conceded: +1.39
Expected points (xPts): 37.40
Points: 40
Points minus xPts: +2.60
Verdict: In line with expected goals

Are Tromsø overperforming their expected goals?

Tromsø's results and their chances agree, within 2.6 points of xPts over 23 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.

Next opponent: Viking expected goals

Games: 23
Viking xG per game: 2.39
Viking xGA per game: 1.43
Points minus xPts: +12.25
Verdict: Riding their luck

Tromsø results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
26/	23	39.36	42	+2.64	32.39	31	+1.39	37.40	40	+2.60
Last 10	10	16.64	24	+7.36	13.61	17	-3.39	15.76	15	-0.76
Last 5	5	8.32	8	-0.32	6.06	11	-4.94	8.17	5	-3.17
Home	12	24.34	22	-2.34	13.24	10	+3.24	23.45	25	+1.55
Away	11	15.02	20	+4.98	19.15	21	-1.85	13.95	15	+1.05

Tromsø expected goals match by match, 2026/2027

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
18 Oct	Eliteserien	KFUM (H)	1-1	1.50	0.84	1.85	1	W
11 Oct	Eliteserien	Fredrikstad (A)	1-1	1.74	2.11	1.18	1	L
20 Sep	Eliteserien	HamKam (H)	3-2	2.38	0.26	2.67	3	W
12 Sep	Eliteserien	Rosenborg (A)	5-3	2.24	1.87	1.61	0	W
6 Sep	Eliteserien	Kristiansund (A)	2-0	0.46	0.98	0.86	0	L
30 Aug	Eliteserien	Sarpsborg 08 (H)	0-0	1.47	0.64	1.98	1	W
16 Aug	Eliteserien	Molde (A)	3-2	1.08	2.34	0.67	0	L
2 Aug	Eliteserien	Aalesund (A)	2-6	1.61	2.46	0.93	3	L
18 Jul	Eliteserien	HamKam (A)	1-4	2.51	0.96	2.29	3	W
11 Jul	Eliteserien	Vålerenga (H)	4-0	1.65	1.15	1.72	3	W
29 May	Eliteserien	KFUM (A)	0-0	1.02	0.35	1.92	1	W
25 May	Eliteserien	Aalesund (H)	1-1	1.90	1.58	1.59	1	W
16 May	Eliteserien	Bodø / Glimt (A)	5-0	0.09	4.51	0.02	0	L
10 May	Eliteserien	Molde (H)	2-0	1.96	1.60	1.61	3	W
3 May	Eliteserien	Start (A)	1-1	0.61	1.14	0.91	1	L
29 Apr	Eliteserien	Brann (H)	0-5	1.61	2.87	0.76	0	L
26 Apr	Eliteserien	Sandefjord (H)	3-1	1.87	0.75	2.14	3	W
19 Apr	Eliteserien	Sarpsborg 08 (A)	0-1	1.66	1.13	1.73	3	W
15 Apr	Eliteserien	Lillestrøm (H)	0-0	2.08	1.70	1.62	1	W
11 Apr	Eliteserien	Kristiansund (H)	2-0	2.14	0.92	2.15	3	W
6 Apr	Eliteserien	Rosenborg (H)	2-0	2.68	0.45	2.64	3	W
22 Mar	Eliteserien	Brann (A)	1-2	2.00	1.30	1.83	3	W
15 Mar	Eliteserien	Fredrikstad (H)	4-0	3.10	0.48	2.72	3	W

Tromsø players: goals against expected goals, 2026/2027

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Troy Engseth Nyhammer	midfielder	20	953	2.47	6	+3.53	0.23
Jens Hjertø-Dahl	midfielder	14	1202	4.70	7	+2.30	0.35
Alexander Thongla-Iad Warneryd	defender	20	1673	3.18	5	+1.82	0.17
Morten Bjørlo	midfielder	5	347	0.36	1	+0.64	0.09
Vegard Erlien	attacker	5	149	0.38	1	+0.62	0.23
Isak Vådebu	defender	22	1670	0.77	1	+0.23	0.04
Sander Innvær	defender	17	882	0.82	1	+0.18	0.08
Ruben Yttergård Jenssen	midfielder	22	1924	1.06	1	-0.06	0.05
David Edvardsson	midfielder	22	1884	1.16	1	-0.16	0.06
Vetle Skjærvik	defender	18	1476	1.66	1	-0.66	0.10
Lars Olden Larsen	attacker	22	1351	2.33	1	-1.33	0.16
Tobias Guddal	defender	15	1350	1.36	0	-1.36	0.09
Daniel Braut	attacker	17	522	3.63	2	-1.63	0.63
Heine Åsen Larsen	midfielder	23	1701	11.94	10	-1.94	0.63
Leo Cornic	defender	15	1289	2.20	0	-2.20	0.15

Eliteserien 2026/2027: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Viking	23	55.1	59	32.8	22	43.7	56	+12.3
2	KFUM	23	28.1	28	42.9	37	23.4	29	+5.6
3	Fredrikstad	23	28.6	28	43.5	36	24.1	29	+4.9
4	Lillestrøm	23	37.7	32	38.7	31	31.4	36	+4.6
5	Bodø / Glimt	23	65.1	58	21.8	20	52.5	56	+3.5
6	Tromsø	23	39.4	42	32.4	31	37.4	40	+2.6
7	Rosenborg	23	42.7	43	35	31	37	37	0
8	HamKam	23	31.8	33	42.9	48	26	26	-0
9	Molde	23	48.5	52	32.4	35	40.4	40	-0.4
10	Aalesund	23	37.1	39	50.2	51	25.6	24	-1.6
11	Sandefjord	23	30.4	22	43.2	30	25.9	24	-1.9
12	Brann	23	43.5	40	41.4	37	33	29	-4
13	Sarpsborg 08	23	39	28	38.6	34	32.2	28	-4.2
14	Kristiansund	23	27.6	23	47	47	23.8	19	-4.8
15	Vålerenga	23	42.2	38	42.1	46	32.1	26	-6.1
16	Start	23	34.9	25	46.5	54	26.2	16	-10.2

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