Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 18 October 2026, after the last game
Start have the biggest shortfall in the Eliteserien: 16 points from chances worth 26.2 xPts, a gap of 10.2. At the other end, Viking have taken 56 points from an xPts figure of 43.7, 12.3 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodø / Glimt | 11 | 34 | 38.9 | -4.9 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | +27 | 32.7 | -5.7 | 30 | 29.6 | +0.4 |
| 2 | Viking | 11 | 41 | 31.2 | +9.8 | 12 | 15.1 | -3.1 | +29 | 16.1 | +12.9 | 33 | 23.6 | +9.4 |
| 3 | Tromsø | 12 | 22 | 24.3 | -2.3 | 10 | 13.2 | -3.2 | +12 | 11.1 | +0.9 | 25 | 23.4 | +1.6 |
| 4 | Rosenborg | 12 | 28 | 24.2 | +3.8 | 14 | 14.4 | -0.4 | +14 | 9.9 | +4.1 | 24 | 22.4 | +1.6 |
| 5 | Molde | 12 | 30 | 24.0 | +6.0 | 14 | 15.3 | -1.3 | +16 | 8.7 | +7.3 | 25 | 21.4 | +3.6 |
| 6 | Brann | 12 | 20 | 25.0 | -5.0 | 18 | 17.1 | +0.9 | +2 | 8.0 | -6.0 | 18 | 20.8 | -2.8 |
| 7 | Sarpsborg 08 | 11 | 12 | 20.8 | -8.8 | 15 | 16.7 | -1.7 | -3 | 4.1 | -7.1 | 15 | 17.7 | -2.7 |
| 8 | Vålerenga | 12 | 23 | 22.8 | +0.2 | 20 | 21.6 | -1.6 | +3 | 1.2 | +1.8 | 17 | 17.4 | -0.4 |
| 9 | Start | 11 | 14 | 21.8 | -7.8 | 19 | 18.7 | +0.3 | -5 | 3.1 | -8.1 | 12 | 17.2 | -5.2 |
| 10 | Lillestrøm | 11 | 19 | 18.7 | +0.3 | 17 | 17.6 | -0.6 | +2 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 16 | 16.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 12 | 10 | 16.2 | -6.2 | 12 | 18.9 | -6.9 | -2 | -2.7 | +0.7 | 14 | 15.3 | -1.3 |
| 12 | Aalesund | 12 | 24 | 22.1 | +1.9 | 30 | 26.4 | +3.6 | -6 | -4.2 | -1.8 | 12 | 15.0 | -3.0 |
| 13 | Fredrikstad | 11 | 14 | 15.1 | -1.1 | 12 | 17.2 | -5.2 | +2 | -2.1 | +4.1 | 18 | 14.1 | +3.9 |
| 14 | HamKam | 11 | 17 | 15.9 | +1.1 | 21 | 20.5 | +0.5 | -4 | -4.6 | +0.6 | 17 | 12.5 | +4.5 |
| 15 | KFUM | 12 | 15 | 13.9 | +1.1 | 14 | 21.9 | -7.9 | +1 | -8.0 | +9.0 | 20 | 12.2 | +7.8 |
| 16 | Kristiansund | 11 | 14 | 13.9 | +0.1 | 18 | 21.7 | -3.7 | -4 | -7.8 | +3.8 | 14 | 11.7 | +2.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodø / Glimt | 12 | 24 | 26.2 | -2.2 | 13 | 15.6 | -2.6 | +11 | 10.6 | +0.4 | 26 | 22.9 | +3.1 |
| 2 | Viking | 12 | 18 | 23.9 | -5.9 | 10 | 17.7 | -7.7 | +8 | 6.1 | +1.9 | 23 | 20.2 | +2.8 |
| 3 | Molde | 11 | 22 | 24.5 | -2.5 | 21 | 17.1 | +3.9 | +1 | 7.3 | -6.3 | 15 | 19.0 | -4.0 |
| 4 | Lillestrøm | 12 | 13 | 19.0 | -6.0 | 14 | 21.1 | -7.1 | -1 | -2.0 | +1.0 | 20 | 15.4 | +4.6 |
| 5 | Vålerenga | 11 | 15 | 19.4 | -4.4 | 26 | 20.4 | +5.6 | -11 | -1.1 | -9.9 | 9 | 14.7 | -5.7 |
| 6 | Sarpsborg 08 | 12 | 16 | 18.2 | -2.2 | 19 | 21.8 | -2.8 | -3 | -3.6 | +0.6 | 13 | 14.6 | -1.6 |
| 7 | Rosenborg | 11 | 15 | 18.5 | -3.5 | 17 | 20.7 | -3.7 | -2 | -2.2 | +0.2 | 13 | 14.5 | -1.5 |
| 8 | Tromsø | 11 | 20 | 15.0 | +5.0 | 21 | 19.2 | +1.8 | -1 | -4.1 | +3.1 | 15 | 13.9 | +1.1 |
| 9 | HamKam | 12 | 16 | 15.9 | +0.1 | 27 | 22.4 | +4.6 | -11 | -6.4 | -4.6 | 9 | 13.5 | -4.5 |
| 10 | Brann | 11 | 20 | 18.5 | +1.5 | 19 | 24.3 | -5.3 | +1 | -5.8 | +6.8 | 11 | 12.2 | -1.2 |
| 11 | Kristiansund | 12 | 9 | 13.6 | -4.6 | 29 | 25.3 | +3.7 | -20 | -11.6 | -8.4 | 5 | 12.1 | -7.1 |
| 12 | KFUM | 11 | 13 | 14.2 | -1.2 | 23 | 21.1 | +1.9 | -10 | -6.9 | -3.1 | 9 | 11.2 | -2.2 |
| 13 | Aalesund | 11 | 15 | 15.0 | +0.0 | 21 | 23.9 | -2.9 | -6 | -8.9 | +2.9 | 12 | 10.6 | +1.4 |
| 14 | Sandefjord | 11 | 12 | 14.2 | -2.2 | 18 | 24.3 | -6.3 | -6 | -10.1 | +4.1 | 10 | 10.6 | -0.6 |
| 15 | Fredrikstad | 12 | 14 | 13.5 | +0.5 | 24 | 26.3 | -2.3 | -10 | -12.8 | +2.8 | 11 | 10.0 | +1.0 |
| 16 | Start | 12 | 11 | 13.1 | -2.1 | 35 | 27.9 | +7.1 | -24 | -14.8 | -9.2 | 4 | 9.0 | -5.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodø / Glimt | 5 | 11 | 13.8 | -2.8 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 | +5 | 10.1 | -5.1 | 12 | 11.7 | +0.3 |
| 2 | Molde | 5 | 16 | 13.7 | +2.3 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | +10 | 6.9 | +3.1 | 10 | 10.7 | -0.7 |
| 3 | Viking | 5 | 17 | 14.8 | +2.2 | 4 | 6.9 | -2.9 | +13 | 7.9 | +5.1 | 13 | 10.6 | +2.4 |
| 4 | Rosenborg | 5 | 16 | 11.9 | +4.1 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | +11 | 6.2 | +4.8 | 13 | 10.5 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Tromsø | 5 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 | 11 | 6.1 | +4.9 | -3 | 2.3 | -5.3 | 5 | 8.2 | -3.2 |
| 6 | Aalesund | 5 | 11 | 9.7 | +1.3 | 8 | 9.1 | -1.1 | +3 | 0.6 | +2.4 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 |
| 7 | Vålerenga | 5 | 7 | 9.6 | -2.6 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | -1 | 0.3 | -1.3 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 |
| 8 | Brann | 5 | 4 | 10.6 | -6.6 | 10 | 10.5 | -0.5 | -6 | 0.1 | -6.1 | 3 | 7.0 | -4.0 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 | 5 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 | -3 | -0.1 | -2.9 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 |
| 10 | Fredrikstad | 5 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 | -2 | -1.8 | -0.2 | 3 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 5 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 10.8 | -3.8 | +0 | -4.7 | +4.7 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 |
| 12 | Start | 5 | 5 | 8.7 | -3.7 | 15 | 12.9 | +2.1 | -10 | -4.2 | -5.8 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 |
| 13 | KFUM | 5 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 6 | 10.3 | -4.3 | +2 | -4.4 | +6.4 | 10 | 4.4 | +5.6 |
| 14 | Lillestrøm | 5 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | 6 | 11.5 | -5.5 | +2 | -5.1 | +7.1 | 10 | 4.1 | +5.9 |
| 15 | HamKam | 5 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | 16 | 10.5 | +5.5 | -9 | -4.9 | -4.1 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 |
| 16 | Kristiansund | 5 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | 18 | 14.3 | +3.7 | -12 | -9.2 | -2.8 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 |
Viking are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Eliteserien in 2026, with 59 goals from chances worth 55.1 xG, a gap of 3.9. Molde are next on 3.5.
Sarpsborg 08 are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Eliteserien in 2026, with 28 goals from chances worth 39.0 xG, a shortfall of 11.0. Start are next on 9.9.
Viking are the luckiest side in the Eliteserien in 2026, with 56 points from performances worth 43.7 xPts, 12.3 more than their chances deserved. KFUM are next on 5.6.
Start are the unluckiest side in the Eliteserien in 2026, with 16 points from performances worth 26.2 xPts, 10.2 short of what they deserved. Vålerenga are next on 6.1.
Bodø / Glimt would also be top of the Eliteserien in 2026 on expected points, with 52.5 xPts from 65.1 xG created and 21.8 conceded across 23 matches. Viking are next on 43.7.
Bodø / Glimt have created the most xG in the Eliteserien in 2026, 65.1 from 23 matches, 2.8 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Viking are next on 55.1.
Kristiansund have created the least xG in the Eliteserien in 2026, 27.6 from 23 matches, 1.2 a game against a competition average of 1.7. KFUM are next on 28.1.
Aalesund have conceded the most xG in the Eliteserien in 2026, 50.2 from 23 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Kristiansund are next on 47.0.
Bodø / Glimt have conceded the least xG in the Eliteserien in 2026, 21.8 from 23 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Molde and Tromsø are next on 32.4.
Eliteserien teams have averaged 1.72 xG a game in 2026, from the 184 matches played, and have scored 1.60 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.61 xG a game in 2025.
Eliteserien teams create more xG at home in 2026, 1.90 a game against 1.54 away, a home advantage of +0.36, against +0.36 in 2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodø / Glimt | 23 | 58 | 65.1 | -7.1 | 20 | 21.8 | -1.8 | +38 | 43.3 | -5.3 | 56 | 52.5 | +3.5 |
| 2 | Viking | 23 | 59 | 55.1 | +3.9 | 22 | 32.8 | -10.8 | +37 | 22.2 | +14.8 | 56 | 43.7 | +12.3 |
| 3 | Molde | 23 | 52 | 48.5 | +3.5 | 35 | 32.4 | +2.6 | +17 | 16.1 | +0.9 | 40 | 40.4 | -0.4 |
| 4 | Tromsø | 23 | 42 | 39.4 | +2.6 | 31 | 32.4 | -1.4 | +11 | 7.0 | +4.0 | 40 | 37.4 | +2.6 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 23 | 43 | 42.7 | +0.3 | 31 | 35.0 | -4.0 | +12 | 7.7 | +4.3 | 37 | 37.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | Brann | 23 | 40 | 43.5 | -3.5 | 37 | 41.4 | -4.4 | +3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | 29 | 33.0 | -4.0 |
| 7 | Sarpsborg 08 | 23 | 28 | 39.0 | -11.0 | 34 | 38.6 | -4.6 | -6 | 0.4 | -6.4 | 28 | 32.2 | -4.2 |
| 8 | Vålerenga | 23 | 38 | 42.2 | -4.2 | 46 | 42.1 | +3.9 | -8 | 0.1 | -8.1 | 26 | 32.1 | -6.1 |
| 9 | Lillestrøm | 23 | 32 | 37.7 | -5.7 | 31 | 38.7 | -7.7 | +1 | -1.0 | +2.0 | 36 | 31.4 | +4.6 |
| 10 | Start | 23 | 25 | 34.9 | -9.9 | 54 | 46.5 | +7.5 | -29 | -11.7 | -17.3 | 16 | 26.2 | -10.2 |
| 11 | HamKam | 23 | 33 | 31.8 | +1.2 | 48 | 42.9 | +5.1 | -15 | -11.1 | -3.9 | 26 | 26.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 23 | 22 | 30.4 | -8.4 | 30 | 43.2 | -13.2 | -8 | -12.8 | +4.8 | 24 | 25.9 | -1.9 |
| 13 | Aalesund | 23 | 39 | 37.1 | +1.9 | 51 | 50.2 | +0.8 | -12 | -13.2 | +1.2 | 24 | 25.6 | -1.6 |
| 14 | Fredrikstad | 23 | 28 | 28.6 | -0.6 | 36 | 43.5 | -7.5 | -8 | -14.9 | +6.9 | 29 | 24.1 | +4.9 |
| 15 | Kristiansund | 23 | 23 | 27.6 | -4.6 | 47 | 47.0 | +0.0 | -24 | -19.4 | -4.6 | 19 | 23.8 | -4.8 |
| 16 | KFUM | 23 | 28 | 28.1 | -0.1 | 37 | 42.9 | -5.9 | -9 | -14.9 | +5.9 | 29 | 23.4 | +5.6 |