Yes, Sturm Graz have taken 38 points over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, 5.03 more than the 32.97 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Sturm Graz create 1.76 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, 35.20 in all, and have scored 36 goals from those chances, 0.80 more than that xG would expect.
Sturm Graz allow 1.34 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, 26.85 in all, and have conceded 19 goals from those chances, 7.85 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Otar Kiteishvili has the most expected goals (xG) for Sturm Graz over their last 20 Austrian Bundesliga games, 5.31 xG in 13 appearances, and has scored 5 goals; Seedy Jatta is next with 4.42 xG.
Sturm Graz have taken 5.0 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: +0.8 goals against their xG, and +7.9 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 35.20 | 36 | +0.80 | 26.85 | 19 | +7.85 | 32.97 | 38 | +5.03 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 19.26 | 18 | -1.26 | 13.12 | 10 | +3.12 | 16.98 | 20 | +3.02 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 9.78 | 11 | +1.22 | 8.26 | 8 | +0.26 | 7.05 | 9 | +1.95 |
| Home | 10 | 19.16 | 17 | -2.16 | 10.62 | 6 | +4.62 | 18.52 | 20 | +1.48 |
| Away | 10 | 16.04 | 19 | +2.96 | 16.23 | 13 | +3.23 | 14.45 | 18 | +3.55 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Austrian Bundesliga | Grazer AK (H) | 6-1 | 4.00 | 0.51 | 2.79 | 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | Austrian Bundesliga | Austria Wien (A) | 0-2 | 2.36 | 1.89 | 1.66 | 3 | W |
| 20 Sep | Austrian Bundesliga | Salzburg (A) | 3-0 | 0.61 | 1.29 | 0.83 | 0 | L |
| 13 Sep | Austrian Bundesliga | LASK Linz (H) | 2-1 | 2.10 | 2.23 | 1.32 | 3 | L |
| 30 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | SK Rapid (A) | 3-1 | 0.71 | 2.34 | 0.45 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | Lustenau (H) | 1-1 | 1.94 | 1.65 | 1.57 | 1 | W |
| 15 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | Altach (H) | 1-0 | 1.45 | 1.66 | 1.24 | 3 | L |
| 8 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | Hartberg (A) | 0-2 | 1.48 | 0.21 | 2.36 | 3 | W |
| 1 Aug | Austrian Bundesliga | WSG Tirol (A) | 1-1 | 2.22 | 1.03 | 2.12 | 1 | W |
| 17 May | Austrian Bundesliga | SK Rapid (H) | 2-0 | 2.39 | 0.31 | 2.64 | 3 | W |
| 10 May | Austrian Bundesliga | Hartberg (A) | 2-4 | 1.57 | 1.29 | 1.56 | 3 | W |
| 3 May | Austrian Bundesliga | Salzburg (A) | 1-1 | 1.28 | 1.50 | 1.23 | 1 | L |
| 26 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | Austria Wien (H) | 1-1 | 1.20 | 0.74 | 1.71 | 1 | W |
| 22 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | LASK Linz (H) | 1-1 | 2.12 | 0.88 | 2.17 | 1 | W |
| 19 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | LASK Linz (A) | 1-1 | 1.21 | 3.90 | 0.30 | 1 | L |
| 12 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | Hartberg (H) | 0-0 | 1.58 | 0.76 | 1.96 | 1 | W |
| 5 Apr | Austrian Bundesliga | SK Rapid (A) | 0-2 | 1.89 | 0.57 | 2.28 | 3 | W |
| 20 Mar | Austrian Bundesliga | Salzburg (H) | 1-1 | 1.12 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1 | L |
| 15 Mar | Austrian Bundesliga | Austria Wien (A) | 2-5 | 2.71 | 2.21 | 1.66 | 3 | W |
| 8 Mar | Austrian Bundesliga | Altach (H) | 2-0 | 1.26 | 0.61 | 1.86 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Diakité | attacker | 4 | 196 | 3.74 | 6 | +2.26 | 1.72 |
| Luca Weinhandl | midfielder | 16 | 974 | 0.42 | 2 | +1.58 | 0.04 |
| Belmin Beganovic | attacker | 6 | 199 | 0.79 | 2 | +1.21 | 0.36 |
| Nelson Weiper | attacker | 4 | 160 | 1.14 | 2 | +0.86 | 0.64 |
| Filip Rózga | midfielder | 6 | 295 | 0.17 | 1 | +0.83 | 0.05 |
| Jon Gorenc Stankovic | midfielder | 19 | 1655 | 1.32 | 2 | +0.68 | 0.07 |
| Gizo Mamageishvili | midfielder | 18 | 697 | 1.47 | 2 | +0.53 | 0.19 |
| Jürgen Heil | midfielder | 8 | 701 | 0.47 | 1 | +0.53 | 0.06 |
| Ryan Fosso | midfielder | 11 | 763 | 0.51 | 1 | +0.49 | 0.06 |
| Albert Vallci | defender | 18 | 1561 | 1.75 | 2 | +0.25 | 0.10 |
| Szymon Wlodarczyk | attacker | 5 | 243 | 0.80 | 1 | +0.20 | 0.30 |
| Axel Kayombo | attacker | 10 | 284 | 1.20 | 1 | -0.20 | 0.38 |
| Paul Koller | defender | 17 | 1222 | 1.23 | 1 | -0.23 | 0.09 |
| Otar Kiteishvili | midfielder | 13 | 862 | 5.31 | 5 | -0.31 | 0.55 |
| Jeyland Mitchell | defender | 11 | 778 | 0.65 | 0 | -0.65 | 0.07 |
| Valmir Matoshi | midfielder | 5 | 351 | 0.71 | 0 | -0.71 | 0.18 |
| Jacob Peter Hödl | midfielder | 19 | 1492 | 2.16 | 1 | -1.16 | 0.13 |
| Seedy Jatta | attacker | 17 | 1204 | 4.42 | 3 | -1.42 | 0.33 |
| Maurice Malone | attacker | 11 | 501 | 1.89 | 0 | -1.89 | 0.34 |
| Simon Seidl | attacker | 9 | 655 | 2.13 | 0 | -2.13 | 0.29 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SK Rapid | 9 | 18.2 | 26 | 9 | 8 | 16.7 | 24 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Salzburg | 9 | 20.3 | 21 | 10.1 | 4 | 18 | 21 | +3 |
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 16.9 | 16 | 12.8 | 10 | 14.3 | 17 | +2.7 |
| 4 | Hartberg | 9 | 9.2 | 15 | 15.6 | 19 | 8.7 | 11 | +2.3 |
| 5 | Ried | 9 | 16.6 | 16 | 14.6 | 15 | 12.9 | 14 | +1.1 |
| 6 | Austria Lustenau | 9 | 10.3 | 11 | 17.9 | 19 | 8.2 | 8 | -0.2 |
| 7 | LASK Linz | 9 | 18.9 | 23 | 7.4 | 9 | 19.4 | 19 | -0.4 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 9 | 9.1 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 10 | 9 | -1 |
| 9 | Austria Wien | 9 | 9.5 | 9 | 15.3 | 18 | 9.1 | 7 | -2.1 |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC | 9 | 9.5 | 7 | 19 | 18 | 7.4 | 5 | -2.4 |
| 11 | WSG Tirol | 9 | 15.8 | 12 | 14.4 | 14 | 13.6 | 11 | -2.6 |
| 12 | Rheindorf Altach | 9 | 10.6 | 8 | 12.1 | 15 | 12 | 6 | -6 |