No, Independiente del Valle have taken 17 points over their last 10 Copa Libertadores games, within 0.69 of the 16.31 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Independiente del Valle create 1.59 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 10 Copa Libertadores games, 15.88 in all, and have scored 16 goals from those chances, 0.12 more than that xG would expect.
Independiente del Valle allow 1.15 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 10 Copa Libertadores games, 11.46 in all, and have conceded 15 goals from those chances, 3.54 more than that xGA would expect.
Independiente del Valle's results and their chances agree, within 0.7 points of xPts over 10 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 10 | 15.88 | 16 | +0.12 | 11.46 | 15 | -3.54 | 16.31 | 17 | +0.69 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 11.42 | 11 | -0.42 | 3.29 | 6 | -2.71 | 11.40 | 12 | +0.60 |
| Home | 4 | 9.40 | 10 | +0.60 | 2.15 | 3 | -0.85 | 9.61 | 12 | +2.39 |
| Away | 6 | 6.48 | 6 | -0.48 | 9.31 | 12 | -2.69 | 6.70 | 5 | -1.70 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May | Copa Libertadores | Rosario Central (H) | 1-0 | 2.17 | 0.33 | 2.57 | 3 | W |
| 20 May | Copa Libertadores | Libertad (H) | 4-1 | 2.37 | 0.31 | 2.64 | 3 | W |
| 6 May | Copa Libertadores | UCV (A) | 2-0 | 2.24 | 0.50 | 2.47 | 0 | W |
| 28 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Libertad (A) | 2-3 | 0.85 | 1.19 | 1.09 | 3 | L |
| 16 Apr | Copa Libertadores | UCV (H) | 3-1 | 3.79 | 0.96 | 2.63 | 3 | W |
| 9 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Rosario Central (A) | 0-0 | 1.19 | 1.66 | 1.06 | 1 | L |
| 28 May | Copa Libertadores | Barcelona Guayaquil (H) | 2-1 | 1.07 | 0.55 | 1.77 | 3 | W |
| 16 May | Copa Libertadores | River Plate (A) | 6-2 | 0.75 | 2.75 | 0.36 | 0 | L |
| 9 May | Copa Libertadores | Universitario (A) | 1-1 | 1.07 | 0.98 | 1.42 | 1 | W |
| 2 Apr | Copa Libertadores | Barcelona Guayaquil (A) | 1-0 | 0.38 | 2.23 | 0.30 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos González | attacker | 6 | 522 | 0.00 | 7 | +7.00 | 0.00 |
| Júnior Sornoza | midfielder | 8 | 409 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Claudio Spinelli | attacker | 4 | 314 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordy AlcÃvar | midfielder | 10 | 811 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrik Mercado | midfielder | 4 | 302 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Hoyos | attacker | 3 | 125 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Justin Lerma | midfielder | 6 | 388 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Rivadavia | 6 | 8.9 | 15 | 5.4 | 6 | 9.8 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 6 | 7.9 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 9.8 | 16 | +6.2 |
| 3 | Cerro Porteño | 6 | 5.3 | 6 | 7.2 | 2 | 7.3 | 13 | +5.7 |
| 4 | Universidad Católica | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 7.4 | 13 | +5.6 |
| 5 | UCV | 6 | 6.2 | 7 | 12.8 | 11 | 5.1 | 9 | +3.9 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 6 | 7.1 | 8 | 6.5 | 5 | 8.7 | 12 | +3.3 |
| 7 | Rosario Central | 6 | 10.4 | 9 | 6.1 | 1 | 11 | 13 | +2 |
| 8 | Mirassol | 6 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | +2 |
| 9 | Santa Fe | 6 | 4.1 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| 10 | Nacional | 6 | 4.8 | 7 | 7.9 | 9 | 6.4 | 8 | +1.6 |
| 11 | Platense | 6 | 4.9 | 8 | 3.9 | 7 | 8.7 | 10 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Lanús | 6 | 6.3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8.4 | 9 | +0.6 |
| 13 | Independiente del Valle | 6 | 12.6 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12.5 | 13 | +0.5 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 6 | 7.6 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10.6 | 11 | +0.4 |
| 15 | Independiente MedellÃn | 6 | 4.3 | 6 | 7.1 | 11 | 6.8 | 7 | +0.2 |
| 16 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 6.4 | 7 | 5.7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -0 |
| 17 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 6 | 3.1 | 2 | 12.2 | 12 | 3.4 | 3 | -0.4 |
| 18 | Coquimbo Unido | 6 | 8.2 | 8 | 4.9 | 6 | 10.7 | 10 | -0.7 |
| 19 | Estudiantes | 6 | 8 | 6 | 5.1 | 5 | 9.7 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 20 | Cruzeiro | 6 | 10.8 | 8 | 5.3 | 3 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 21 | Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | 3.6 | 6 | 10.6 | 13 | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
| 22 | Palmeiras | 6 | 12.2 | 10 | 5.8 | 5 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 23 | Universitario | 6 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 | 7.4 | 6 | -1.4 |
| 24 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 7.3 | 6 | 8.7 | 9 | 7.7 | 6 | -1.7 |
| 25 | Junior FC | 6 | 6.1 | 5 | 9.2 | 11 | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 |
| 26 | Fluminense | 6 | 7.4 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 10.7 | 8 | -2.7 |
| 27 | Always Ready | 6 | 6.7 | 7 | 10.7 | 9 | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 |
| 28 | Club BolÃvar | 6 | 6.4 | 6 | 7.3 | 8 | 8.1 | 5 | -3.1 |
| 29 | Peñarol | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7.7 | 8 | 6.4 | 3 | -3.4 |
| 30 | Boca Juniors | 6 | 9 | 6 | 4.3 | 5 | 10.9 | 7 | -3.9 |
| 31 | Cusco FC | 6 | 4.9 | 4 | 7.9 | 12 | 6 | 1 | -5 |
| 32 | Libertad | 6 | 5.4 | 4 | 10.8 | 13 | 5.1 | 0 | -5.1 |