No, Famalicão have taken 31 points over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, within 0.09 of the 30.91 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Famalicão create 1.26 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 25.12 in all, and have scored 25 goals from those chances, 0.12 fewer than that xG would expect.
Famalicão allow 1.01 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 20.27 in all, and have conceded 19 goals from those chances, 1.27 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Sorriso has the most expected goals (xG) for Famalicão over their last 20 Liga Portugal games, 4.37 xG in 19 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; Umar Abubakar is next with 2.71 xG.
Famalicão's results and their chances agree, within 0.1 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 25.12 | 25 | -0.12 | 20.27 | 19 | +1.27 | 30.91 | 31 | +0.09 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 9.49 | 11 | +1.51 | 12.31 | 11 | +1.31 | 12.07 | 11 | -1.07 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.61 | 8 | +4.39 | 7.59 | 7 | +0.59 | 4.55 | 6 | +1.45 |
| Home | 10 | 12.02 | 11 | -1.02 | 10.38 | 10 | +0.38 | 14.97 | 16 | +1.03 |
| Away | 10 | 13.10 | 14 | +0.90 | 9.89 | 9 | +0.89 | 15.94 | 15 | -0.94 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct | Liga Portugal | Alverca (H) | 1-4 | 0.40 | 2.50 | 0.25 | 0 | L |
| 19 Sep | Liga Portugal | Nacional (A) | 0-4 | 1.01 | 1.38 | 1.10 | 3 | L |
| 13 Sep | Liga Portugal | Sporting (H) | 1-1 | 0.29 | 2.28 | 0.24 | 1 | L |
| 5 Sep | Liga Portugal | Estrela (A) | 2-2 | 1.54 | 1.14 | 1.65 | 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | Liga Portugal | Gil Vicente (H) | 0-0 | 0.37 | 0.29 | 1.31 | 1 | D |
| 23 Aug | Liga Portugal | Santa Clara (A) | 1-0 | 1.03 | 1.64 | 0.96 | 0 | L |
| 16 Aug | Liga Portugal | Marítimo (H) | 1-2 | 0.81 | 1.26 | 1.01 | 0 | L |
| 7 Aug | Liga Portugal | Estoril (A) | 1-1 | 1.30 | 0.89 | 1.67 | 1 | W |
| 16 May | Liga Portugal | Alverca (H) | 1-0 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 1.33 | 3 | D |
| 11 May | Liga Portugal | Estrela (A) | 0-0 | 2.07 | 0.29 | 2.55 | 1 | W |
| 2 May | Liga Portugal | Benfica (H) | 2-2 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 1.71 | 1 | W |
| 26 Apr | Liga Portugal | Estoril (A) | 0-1 | 1.38 | 0.54 | 2.01 | 3 | W |
| 19 Apr | Liga Portugal | Braga (A) | 2-2 | 0.56 | 1.67 | 0.60 | 1 | L |
| 10 Apr | Liga Portugal | Moreirense (H) | 1-1 | 2.27 | 0.22 | 2.66 | 1 | W |
| 4 Apr | Liga Portugal | Porto (A) | 2-2 | 1.99 | 0.76 | 2.19 | 1 | W |
| 21 Mar | Liga Portugal | Nacional (H) | 1-0 | 1.99 | 0.47 | 2.40 | 3 | W |
| 14 Mar | Liga Portugal | Vitória SC (A) | 1-2 | 1.26 | 0.51 | 1.95 | 3 | W |
| 6 Mar | Liga Portugal | Arouca (H) | 1-0 | 0.96 | 0.55 | 1.68 | 3 | W |
| 1 Mar | Liga Portugal | Rio Ave (A) | 0-0 | 0.96 | 1.07 | 1.26 | 1 | L |
| 23 Feb | Liga Portugal | Casa Pia (H) | 2-0 | 2.16 | 0.60 | 2.38 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgios Koutsias | attacker | 8 | 633 | 2.62 | 5 | +2.38 | 0.37 |
| Rodrigo Pinheiro | defender | 18 | 1613 | 0.83 | 2 | +1.17 | 0.05 |
| Victor Rofino | defender | 3 | 270 | 0.04 | 1 | +0.96 | 0.01 |
| Finn van Breemen | defender | 7 | 630 | 0.06 | 1 | +0.94 | 0.01 |
| Rafa Soares | defender | 12 | 1015 | 0.33 | 1 | +0.67 | 0.03 |
| Antoine Joujou | attacker | 6 | 126 | 0.52 | 1 | +0.48 | 0.37 |
| Mathias de Amorim | midfielder | 19 | 1641 | 1.65 | 2 | +0.35 | 0.09 |
| Pedro Santos | attacker | 15 | 570 | 0.95 | 1 | +0.05 | 0.15 |
| Justin de Haas | defender | 11 | 990 | 2.05 | 2 | -0.05 | 0.19 |
| Sorriso | attacker | 19 | 1596 | 4.37 | 4 | -0.37 | 0.25 |
| Ibrahima Ba | defender | 9 | 810 | 1.37 | 1 | -0.37 | 0.15 |
| Gil Dias | attacker | 20 | 1467 | 1.51 | 1 | -0.51 | 0.09 |
| Tom van de Looi | midfielder | 15 | 1273 | 0.63 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.04 |
| Umar Abubakar | attacker | 18 | 314 | 2.71 | 2 | -0.71 | 0.78 |
| Roméo Beney | attacker | 13 | 283 | 0.96 | 0 | -0.96 | 0.30 |
| Simon Elisor | attacker | 12 | 850 | 1.82 | 0 | -1.82 | 0.19 |
| Gustavo Sá | midfielder | 10 | 851 | 2.00 | 0 | -2.00 | 0.21 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 18.7 | 20 | 7.9 | 4 | 17.2 | 24 | +6.8 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 9.7 | 11 | 14.2 | 10 | 8.6 | 14 | +5.4 |
| 3 | Arouca | 8 | 8.9 | 11 | 11.2 | 7 | 10 | 14 | +4 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 14.4 | 18 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Sporting CP | 8 | 13.8 | 20 | 7.1 | 9 | 15.1 | 18 | +2.9 |
| 6 | Rio Ave | 8 | 6.2 | 8 | 14.9 | 17 | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 8 | 6.6 | 8 | 14.1 | 15 | 6.7 | 8 | +1.3 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 11.2 | 13 | 12.1 | 12 | 10.3 | 11 | +0.7 |
| 9 | Benfica | 8 | 18.6 | 24 | 5.8 | 7 | 18.4 | 19 | +0.6 |
| 10 | Marítimo | 8 | 7.1 | 9 | 11.3 | 14 | 8.4 | 8 | -0.4 |
| 11 | Sporting Braga | 7 | 8.8 | 8 | 5.3 | 8 | 11.9 | 11 | -0.9 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 10 | 6 | 6.6 | 5 | 12.1 | 11 | -1.1 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 6.7 | 10 | 11.4 | 11 | 8.2 | 7 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 11.9 | 14 | 11.1 | 15 | 11.5 | 10 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 8 | 7 | 3 | 13.7 | 17 | 7.1 | 4 | -3.1 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 9.6 | 9 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 4 | -5 |
| 17 | Estoril | 8 | 7.4 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 8.1 | 2 | -6.1 |
| 18 | Vitória Guimarães | 8 | 13.3 | 5 | 7.8 | 10 | 14.2 | 5 | -9.2 |