Yes, Almería have taken 24 points over 10 La Liga 2 games in 2026/2027, 8.57 more than the 15.43 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Almería create 1.50 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 La Liga 2 games in 2026/2027, 15.04 in all, and have scored 20 goals from those chances, 4.96 more than that xG would expect.
Almería allow 1.19 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 La Liga 2 games in 2026/2027, 11.89 in all, and have conceded 7 goals from those chances, 4.89 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Sergio Arribas has the most expected goals (xG) for Almería over 10 La Liga 2 games in 2026/2027, 1.39 xG in 7 appearances, and has scored 1 goal; Brian Cipenga is next with 0.84 xG.
Almería have taken 8.6 points more than their chances warranted over 10 games: +5.0 goals against their xG, and +4.9 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 15.04 | 20 | +4.96 | 11.89 | 7 | +4.89 | 15.43 | 24 | +8.57 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 9.27 | 12 | +2.73 | 5.51 | 3 | +2.51 | 9.23 | 15 | +5.77 |
| Home | 5 | 10.43 | 13 | +2.57 | 4.10 | 3 | +1.10 | 10.83 | 15 | +4.17 |
| Away | 5 | 4.61 | 7 | +2.39 | 7.79 | 4 | +3.79 | 4.60 | 9 | +4.40 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | La Liga 2 | Real Sociedad II (A) | 2-4 | 1.18 | 1.52 | 1.14 | 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | La Liga 2 | Leganés (H) | 3-0 | 1.50 | 0.53 | 2.09 | 3 | W |
| 3 Oct | La Liga 2 | Burgos (H) | 2-1 | 2.60 | 0.86 | 2.39 | 3 | W |
| 27 Sep | La Liga 2 | Mallorca (A) | 0-1 | 1.59 | 1.90 | 1.20 | 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | La Liga 2 | Celta Fortuna (H) | 2-0 | 2.40 | 0.70 | 2.41 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | La Liga 2 | Córdoba (A) | 0-2 | 0.45 | 1.74 | 0.49 | 3 | L |
| 6 Sep | La Liga 2 | Cádiz (H) | 3-2 | 1.54 | 1.18 | 1.62 | 3 | W |
| 29 Aug | La Liga 2 | Sabadell (A) | 1-0 | 0.72 | 1.52 | 0.79 | 0 | L |
| 23 Aug | La Liga 2 | Tenerife (A) | 1-0 | 0.67 | 1.11 | 0.98 | 0 | L |
| 17 Aug | La Liga 2 | Eldense (H) | 3-0 | 2.39 | 0.83 | 2.32 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel de la Fuente | attacker | 10 | 767 | 0.79 | 6 | +5.21 | 0.09 |
| Brian Cipenga | attacker | 9 | 589 | 0.84 | 3 | +2.16 | 0.13 |
| Nico Melamed | midfielder | 7 | 322 | 0.02 | 2 | +1.99 | 0.00 |
| Javi Muñoz | midfielder | 7 | 626 | 0.33 | 2 | +1.67 | 0.05 |
| Federico Bonini | defender | 10 | 900 | 0.02 | 1 | +0.98 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Dzodic | midfielder | 8 | 674 | 0.14 | 1 | +0.86 | 0.02 |
| Daijiro Chirino | defender | 9 | 480 | 0.26 | 1 | +0.74 | 0.05 |
| Thalys | attacker | 4 | 129 | 0.29 | 1 | +0.71 | 0.20 |
| Léo Baptistão | attacker | 8 | 233 | 0.51 | 1 | +0.49 | 0.20 |
| Sergio Arribas | midfielder | 7 | 496 | 1.39 | 1 | -0.39 | 0.25 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almería | 10 | 15 | 20 | 11.9 | 7 | 15.4 | 24 | +8.6 |
| 2 | SD Eibar | 10 | 13.2 | 20 | 11.6 | 11 | 14.5 | 22 | +7.5 |
| 3 | Sporting Gijón | 10 | 10.4 | 11 | 10.3 | 9 | 13.6 | 19 | +5.4 |
| 4 | Castellón | 10 | 19.1 | 18 | 10.6 | 4 | 18.5 | 23 | +4.5 |
| 5 | Mallorca | 10 | 11.6 | 12 | 11.8 | 5 | 13.5 | 18 | +4.5 |
| 6 | Girona | 10 | 12 | 17 | 13.5 | 9 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 7 | Burgos | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 13.6 | 10 | 13.1 | 17 | +3.9 |
| 8 | Real Oviedo | 10 | 14.4 | 13 | 15.3 | 10 | 13.5 | 17 | +3.5 |
| 9 | Leganés | 10 | 10.4 | 6 | 18.3 | 15 | 9.4 | 11 | +1.6 |
| 10 | Granada | 10 | 16.5 | 16 | 12.8 | 13 | 15.5 | 17 | +1.5 |
| 11 | Tenerife | 10 | 9.3 | 12 | 12.3 | 14 | 11.8 | 13 | +1.2 |
| 12 | Las Palmas | 10 | 8.7 | 13 | 12.7 | 19 | 10.8 | 11 | +0.2 |
| 13 | Celta Fortuna | 10 | 12.7 | 15 | 15.9 | 16 | 11.9 | 12 | +0.1 |
| 14 | Sabadell | 10 | 14.3 | 10 | 10.8 | 8 | 16.4 | 16 | -0.4 |
| 15 | Eldense | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 13.4 | 13 | 15 | 14 | -1 |
| 16 | Real Valladolid | 10 | 14.4 | 15 | 11.9 | 14 | 14.9 | 12 | -2.9 |
| 17 | Real Sociedad II | 10 | 12.8 | 14 | 16.9 | 21 | 11.3 | 8 | -3.3 |
| 18 | Córdoba | 10 | 18.6 | 15 | 15.9 | 20 | 16 | 12 | -4 |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 12 | 17 | 15.3 | 10 | -5.3 |
| 20 | Cádiz | 10 | 11.1 | 11 | 11.5 | 13 | 13.1 | 7 | -6.1 |
| 21 | Ceuta | 10 | 15.2 | 9 | 15.8 | 22 | 13.7 | 5 | -8.7 |
| 22 | Albacete | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 16.6 | 22 | 11.3 | 1 | -10.3 |