Prices start moving this gameweek. The FanTeam buys the model rates best per pound after two weeks of data (Walker, Tuten, Kalif Raymond, Likely), the four quarterbacks on injury reports, the sells, and how to spend or bank your two transfers.
Gameweek 3 is when the prices start moving
FanTeam freeze prices for the first two gameweeks and let them move from the third, FPL-style, so this is the last deadline at which a hot start costs what it cost on 7 September. The list we price against is the one FanTeam published then; check a player's price in the app before you confirm a transfer, because from this week it may not be the one below. The deadline is the Thursday-night kick-off, Falcons at Packers, 01:15 BST on Friday morning, and transfers are provisional until then.
The model now has two weeks of real usage in its rest-of-season projection, and the projection has moved a long way for some players. The value figures below are projected season points per £1m of price; the best legal £140m squad projects about 2,500 points, so 18 per £1m is the bar and anything past 20 is a bargain.
The value list, by position
Running back is where the market has been left behind. Kenneth Walker III, now in Kansas City, costs £19.0m and projects 462 points, 27 a game after two weeks of a workload the price never anticipated: 24.3 per £1m, the best of any player over £15m. Bhayshul Tuten in Jacksonville at £13.0m projects 296 (22.8 per £1m) as the lead back the model gives 60% to score on Sunday, and Bucky Irving at £15.0m projects 337 (22.5). Gibbs, Chase Brown, Henry and Cook are all above 21 per £1m at £19m to £21.5m, which is the model saying the top of the running back market is fairly priced and the middle is cheap.
At receiver the cheap end is where the value lives. Kalif Raymond, £9.5m in Chicago, projects 231 points and 24.3 per £1m, the best on the list; Denzel Boston (£9.0m, 191) and KC Concepcion (£9.5m, 192) in Cleveland are both above 20. Among the expensive ones Amon-Ra St. Brown at £20.0m projects 420, 21 per £1m, and Parker Washington at £17.0m projects 333, 19.6. Jaxon Smith-Njigba at £22.0m still returns 18.1, better than his Week 1 number, because the projection has risen.
Tight end: Isaiah Likely at £11.5m projects 227 (19.7 per £1m), Travis Kelce at £16.0m projects 302 (18.9) and Trey McBride at £19.0m, the top scorer at the position, 346 (18.2). Quarterback: Josh Allen at £21.5m projects 417 and 19.4 per £1m, still the best value at the position at the highest price, with Tyler Shough (£16.0m, 306) and Malik Willis (£16.0m, 281) the budget routes. Defence: Cincinnati at £7.5m (131 points, 17.4 per £1m) and Pittsburgh at £8.5m (142, 16.7) have overtaken Seattle at £10.0m on value.
- Kenneth Walker III — RB, KC · £19.0m · 462 projected — at £19.0m — The best value over £15m on the list. Listed possible; buy before the price moves.
- Bhayshul Tuten — RB, JAX · £13.0m · 296 projected — at £13.0m — Jacksonville's lead back at a committee price.
- Kalif Raymond — WR, CHI · £9.5m · 231 projected — at £9.5m — The best points per pound on the whole list. A budget receiver who frees £8m elsewhere.
- Isaiah Likely — TE, NYG · £11.5m · 227 projected — at £11.5m — The Giants' tight end at a price that makes the position cheap.
- Cincinnati Bengals D/ST — DST, CIN · £7.5m · 131 projected — at £7.5m — The best defence per pound after two weeks. £2.5m cheaper than Seattle for about the same points.
Four quarterbacks on reports, and what the safety net does about it
Jayden Daniels is doubtful with an elbow, Caleb Williams is doubtful with a hamstring, Joe Burrow is questionable with a back injury and Patrick Mahomes is listed possible. If you own one, remember the rule: the safety net replaces a player who plays and scores nothing with the next-priced player from the same team and position, but a player who does not dress is simply a zero. Washington and Chicago are the two to act on. If Daniels or Williams is ruled out on Saturday it is too late to transfer, because the gameweek locked on Thursday night, so a manager who owns either has to decide now, on a doubtful tag, whether to spend a transfer. The model's answer is yes for both: it has Marcus Mariota and Tyson Bagent starting, and neither is a nine-point quarterback.
The other sells are price, not injury. Kyren Williams at £20.0m projects 15.7 a game, under ten per £1m; Chuba Hubbard at £15.0m, Javonte Williams at £17.0m, Romeo Doubs at £15.5m and Rashid Shaheed at £15.0m are all mid-priced players the projection has at single-digit or low-teens returns. Zach Charbonnet, still on reserve/PUP at £10.0m, is a zero until at least week five and should not be in anyone's nine.
- Sell: Jayden Daniels — QB, WSH · £18.0m · doubtful, elbow — at £18.0m — A doubtful tag on a Thursday-night deadline is an out. Shough or Willis at £16.0m banks £2m.
- Sell: Caleb Williams — QB, CHI · £20.5m · doubtful, hamstring — at £20.5m — The model has Bagent starting on Monday night. £4.5m back if you move to Shough.
- Avoid: Kyren Williams — RB, LAR · £20.0m · 15.7 a game projected — at £20.0m — The Rams run, but the price needs elite production and the projection is not there.
Spend or bank
You have two free transfers a gameweek and they bank with no cap, so the default is to hold them. The exceptions this week are a doubtful quarterback and a running back the price list has not caught up with: if you own Daniels or Williams, one transfer goes on the quarterback; if you have £6m of room and do not own Walker, the other goes on him before his price does. A manager with neither problem should bank both. The heavy bye weeks start in week five, and four saved transfers in October are worth more than two spent in September.
For gameweek 3 itself the model's biggest projected scorers are Walker and Gibbs at 27 a game, St. Brown and Allen at 24 or 25, and the Ravens pair of Henry and Lamar Jackson in Rio. The FanTeam optimiser will build the rest of the nine around whoever you lock.
Put it to work
- FanTeam Optimiser Every FanTeam price against the rest-of-season projection. Lock your keepers and it builds the other slots.
- Injuries The four quarterbacks and everyone else on a report.
- How to play FanTeam The rules, transfers, the wildcard and the safety net.