Updated 5 November 2026.
FC Midtjylland host Ajax at the MCH Arena on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 17:45 UK, in the League Stage of the Europa Conference League. The Danes are 25th of 36 with a single point from two games. Ajax are 13th on 3 points and have won four of their last five games in all competitions.
Ajax have scored 3.13 goals a game, the 3rd most of 165 European clubs, and have put up 9.13 shots on target a game, the 2nd most. Midtjylland have conceded 0.83 a game, the 20th fewest.
Midtjylland have just one point from their first two games in the league table, a 1-1 draw away at Egnatia followed by a 0-1 home defeat to Sint-Truiden. Domestically the picture is far brighter. They beat Viborg 2-1, Lyngby 3-2 and won 3-2 at Nordsjælland on 1 November, a run of three straight Superliga wins. They have won six of their last ten games in all competitions, drawn three and lost one. They are scoring 2 goals a game, the 25th most of 165 European clubs, and have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their games, the 51st highest.
Ajax sit 13th with a win and a defeat from two. They lost 2-1 at Hajduk Split on the opening night, won 5-2 at Groningen on 18 October and beat Atalanta 2-0 at home on 22 October. Since then they have won 2-1 at Sparta and 1-0 against AZ in the Eredivisie. That is four wins in their last five.
Both teams to score has landed in 88% of Ajax's games, the 37th highest, and over 2.5 goals in 88% as well, the 32nd highest. Midtjylland average 6.67 shots on target a game, the 18th most.
We project 5.64 corners for Midtjylland against 3.78 for Ajax, and more fouls and yellow cards from Ajax, 12.10 fouls and 1.91 yellows against 11.70 and 1.49.
FC Midtjylland possible starting lineup:
Bakker; Kristensen, Bech Sørensen, Diao, Bravo; Billing, Emefile, Johannesen; Cho, Rajović, Iheanacho
Ajax possible starting lineup:
ter Stegen; Rosa, Baas, Bouwman, Wijndal; Mokio, Amrabat, Klaassen; Tsygankov, Marcos Leonardo, Ouazane
Jorthy Mokio has had at least one shot in each of his last five games, 11 in total and an average of 2.2 a game. He is 1.33 at bet365 to have one here.
Philip Billing has had a shot in four of his last five games, an average of 0.8 a game, and is 1.25 at bet365 to have one again.
Rasmus Kristensen has committed a foul in four of his last five and is 1.40 at Midnite to do it again. Alongside him, Mads Bech Sørensen has fouled in four of five too, averaging 1.8 a game, with 1.44 at Midnite.
We make Ajax the slightly likelier winner at 40%, against 35% for Midtjylland and 25% for the draw. Ajax are 2.50 at Coral, Midtjylland 2.63 at bet365 and the draw 3.80 at Coral. Both teams to score is 1.40 at bet365 and over 2.5 goals is 1.48 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Midtjylland win | 2.63 (bet365) | 35% |
| Draw | 3.80 (Coral) | 25% |
| Ajax win | 2.50 (Coral) | 40% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 (bet365) | 58% |
Our projection is 1.46 goals for Midtjylland and 1.56 for Ajax. 1-1 is the likeliest score, at 12%, though we make Ajax slightly more likely to win, with 1-2 next at 9%. A draw is in play. Both teams scoring is a 61% chance and over 2.5 goals is 58%.
Our prediction: Midtjylland 1-1 Ajax.
Midtjylland vs Ajax in the Europa Conference League League Stage kicks off at 17:45 UK on Thursday 5 November 2026 at the MCH Arena. It is the third league-phase game of the 2026-27 campaign for both clubs, with Midtjylland 25th of 36 on 1 point and Ajax 13th on 3.
We predict a 1-1 draw for Midtjylland vs Ajax in the 2026 Europa Conference League, a scoreline given a 12% chance. We make Ajax slightly more likely to win, at 40%, against 35% for Midtjylland.
Ajax are the narrow favourites for the Europa Conference League tie, priced 2.50 at Coral against 2.63 for Midtjylland at bet365. Our model gives Ajax a 40% chance of winning, ahead of Midtjylland on 35%.
We give both teams to score in Midtjylland vs Ajax a 61% chance in this 2026 Europa Conference League game, with over 2.5 goals at 58%. Ajax have seen both sides score in 88% of their games.
Midtjylland are 25th of 36 in the 2026 Europa Conference League with 1 point from 2 games, while Ajax are 13th on 3 points from 2 games. Ajax have won once and lost once; Midtjylland have drawn once and lost once.
For Midtjylland vs Ajax in the 2026 Europa Conference League, Midtjylland's possible starting lineup has Bakker in goal with Cho, Rajović and Iheanacho up front, and Ajax's has ter Stegen in goal with Marcos Leonardo leading the line.