AFC Bournemouth host AC Milan at the Vitality Stadium on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in a Europa League league-stage game between a side with a perfect record and one still finding its feet. Bournemouth are 5th in the Europa League table with six points from two games. Milan are 16th of 36 on three points after a win and a defeat.
Bournemouth beat Sturm Graz 3-0 on Europa League night and followed it with a 2-0 win over Sunderland at the weekend. Milan hit Salzburg for four away from home, then edged Atalanta 3-2 in Serie A. Goals are likely at both ends.
AFC Bournemouth have won both their European games, 2-1 away at Sociedad and then 3-0 at home to Sturm Graz. That is five goals scored and one conceded, and they have kept a clean sheet in half their matches, and both of their games in the competition have gone over 2.5 goals.
Domestically it has been patchier. They lost 5-1 at Chelsea on 10 October and 0-1 at home to Liverpool in September, before the 2-0 win over Sunderland on Sunday steadied things. They average 5 shots on target a game in Europe.
AC Milan arrive after a lively week. The 4-0 win at Salzburg followed a 2-0 home defeat to Benfica in their opener, and the 3-2 win over Atalanta made it back-to-back victories. Before that came a 1-1 draw at Sassuolo and a 3-0 win over Lecce.
Milan average 7 shots on target and 2 goals a game in this competition, and they have kept a clean sheet in half their games.
AFC Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Petrovic; Smith, Diakité, Silva, Soler; Cook, Adams, Tavernier; Gannon-Doak, RodrÃguez, Evanilson
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Tomori, De Winter, Pavlović; Bartesaghi, Rabiot, Jashari, Loftus-Cheek; Hutchinson, Cissè, Camarda
Evanilson has had a shot on target in each of his last five games, and our model projects Bournemouth for 4.99 shots on target in this game. He is 1.30 at bet365 for a shot on target. He is also 1.36 to commit a foul, a market our model ranks him 2nd likeliest in.
Adrien Rabiot has had at least one shot in each of his last five and averages 2.2 per game over that run. He is 1.25 at bet365 to have a shot.
Ben Gannon-Doak has made at least one tackle in each of his last five, 1.6 a game, and is 1.36 at bet365 for a tackle.
Strahinja Pavlović has made two or more tackles in all five of his recent games, averaging 2.4, and is 1.73 at bet365 for 2+ tackles. Our model also likes him for 2+ shots at 5.50.
Julio Soler is 4.33 for two or more fouls, which our model ranks 3rd likeliest in the match. Adam Smith is 1.50 for a foul, which our model ranks likeliest in the match.
We back Bournemouth, who are 2.10 at bet365 and 46% likely to win by our numbers. Milan are 3.30 and the draw is 3.70. The player markets carry the real interest: Evanilson's shot on target and Rabiot's shot both come with five-from-five recent records.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 2.10 (bet365) | 46% |
| Draw | 3.70 (Ladbrokes) | 25% |
| Milan win | 3.30 (bet365) | 29% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 59% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 (bet365) | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | 57% |
We expect 1.67 goals from Bournemouth and 1.29 from Milan. Our prediction is 1-1, the likeliest single scoreline at 12%, though we make Bournemouth more likely to win overall. With the draw at the top of the scorelines, a share of the points is in play. Both teams to score is a 59% chance.
Prediction: AFC Bournemouth 1-1 AC Milan.