Updated 4 November 2026.
Celta de Vigo host Union Saint-Gilloise at Abanca-Balaídos on Thursday 5 November, with kick-off at 8pm UK, and the two clubs arrive in very different places. Celta have three points from three Europa League games and sit 25th; the Belgian side have seven from three and are 6th, having conceded once all campaign.
In the Europa League Celta have won one and lost two, scoring three and conceding four, and both defeats were by a single goal, including a 2-1 home loss to Juventus on 15 October. They answered with a 2-1 win at Celtic a week later, but domestic form since has been flat: a 0-0 draw with Betis was followed by a 3-0 defeat at Rayo last Saturday. Across all competitions they have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten.
Union are unbeaten. They average 2.67 goals a game in this competition, the 3rd most in the field, and concede 0.33, the 5th fewest. They keep a clean sheet in 67% of their games, the 5th highest rate, and their 11 shots on target per game is the most of any side. Their last three games were a 4-0 win over Be'er Sheva, followed by a 5-2 win over Club Brugge at home and a 2-1 win at Beveren on Saturday. They have won eight and drawn two of their last ten across all competitions.
Celta's attack is the quieter of the two: 1.00 goals a game is the 38th fewest, and they manage 3.67 shots on target, the 31st fewest. They do win corners at a good rate, 6.33 a game, the 14th most. Two of their three European games have seen both teams score, a 67% rate.
Celta de Vigo possible starting lineup:
Radu; Rodríguez, Cáceres, Alonso; Rueda, Febas, Burcio, Carreira; Aspas, Jutglà, Álvarez
Union Saint-Gilloise possible starting lineup:
Koffi; Garcia, Sylla, Chibani; Van De Perre; Smith, Zeneli, Olaru, Patris; Mofokeng, Florucz
Guilherme Smith is the busiest shooter in the Union side. He has had a shot in all three European games, averaging 3.0 a game, and across his last five he has never been below one, with a high of five. He is 1.25 at Ladbrokes to have a shot.
Relebohile Mofokeng has also shot in each of the three, at 2.3 a game, and is 1.10 at bet365. Darius Olaru has 1.7 shots a game over the same run and is 1.13 at bet365.
For Celta, Sergio Carreira has had a shot and committed a foul in all three games. The shot is 1.73 at bet365 and the foul 1.73 at Ladbrokes. On the other flank, Javi Rueda has had a shot in four of his last five and is also 1.73 at bet365.
At the back, Benjamin Garcia has committed two or more fouls in each of Union's three Europa League games, 2.3 a game. He is 2.30 at Ladbrokes to do it again.
We back Celta de Vigo to avoid defeat at the Balaídos: we make them 42% to win and 27% to draw, which is 69% between the two. Over 2.5 goals is a 50% chance for us and 1.91 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Celta win | 2.30 (bet365) | 42% |
| Draw | 3.50 (Coral) | 27% |
| Union SG win | 3.00 (bet365) | 31% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 50% |
We predict a 1-1 draw. It is the likeliest single score at 13%, though we make Celta 42% to win against 31% for Union. We project 1.46 goals for Celta against 1.23 for the visitors, and both teams to score comes in at 55%.
Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise kicks off at 8pm UK on Thursday 5 November 2026 at Abanca-Balaídos in the 2026-27 Europa League league stage. It is the fourth game of the campaign for both clubs, with Union 6th on 7 points and Celta 25th on 3.
We predict a 1-1 draw between Celta de Vigo and Union Saint-Gilloise in the 2026-27 Europa League. That score has a 13% chance, the highest of any single scoreline, though we give Celta a 42% chance of winning.
Celta de Vigo are marginal favourites against Union Saint-Gilloise in the 2026-27 Europa League match, at 2.30 with bet365 against 3.00 for Union. Our model has Celta at 42% to win, the draw at 27% and Union at 31%.
We give both teams to score a 55% chance in Celta de Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise in the 2026-27 Europa League, with bet365 offering 1.67. Over 2.5 goals is a 50% chance, priced at 1.91, and we project 1.46 goals for Celta and 1.23 for Union.
Guilherme Smith, Relebohile Mofokeng and Darius Olaru have each had at least 1 shot in all 3 of Union Saint-Gilloise's 2026-27 Europa League games. Smith leads with 3.0 shots a game, priced 1.25 at Ladbrokes.
Union Saint-Gilloise are 6th in the 36-team 2026-27 Europa League table with 7 points from 3 games, while Celta de Vigo are 25th with 3 points. Union have scored 8 and conceded just 1; Celta have scored 3 and conceded 4.
Celta de Vigo's predicted XI for the 2026-27 Europa League match is Radu; Rodríguez, Cáceres, Alonso; Carreira, Moriba, Febas, Rueda; Álvarez, Aspas, Jutglà. Union's predicted XI has Koffi in goal, with Smith, Florucz and Mofokeng in attack.