Salzburg welcome AC Milan to the Red Bull Arena on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 5:45pm UK, in a Europa League league-stage game that pits a side with a win behind them against one still looking for its first points. Salzburg beat Levski Sofia 1-0 away in their opener and sit 14th of 36 on 3 points. Milan lost 2-0 at home to Benfica and are 30th with none.
The Austrians arrive in the better shape on paper, but the visitors have the stronger attack on our model's numbers and are 1.85 to win at Midnite.
Salzburg are unbeaten in their last ten games, a run of seven wins and three draws. Their latest outing was a 0-0 draw at Grazer AK on 10 October, which followed a 3-0 win over Sturm Graz. In Europe they edged Levski Sofia 1-0 away, and before that they thrashed SK Rapid 5-1 at home.
Defensively they have been tight. They have kept a clean sheet in 80% of their recent games.
Milan have been less steady. Their most recent game was a 1-1 draw at Sassuolo, and the week before they beat Lecce 3-0 at home. Between those came the 0-2 loss to Benfica in this competition. Before that they drew 2-2 at Lazio and 1-1 at Juventus.
Salzburg possible starting lineup:
Früchtl; Morgalla, Boma, Drexler; Schmid, Barry, Mazurek; Kitano, Baidoo, Vertessen; Tabakovic
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; De Winter, Tomori, Pavlović; Bartesaghi, Modrić, Musah; Chukwueze, Cissè, Pulisic; Ramos
Gonçalo Ramos has had a shot on target in each of his last five games, and he is 1.25 at bet365 to have at least one here. He averages 1.6 on target over his last eight.
Edmund Baidoo is Salzburg's most reliable shooter, with a shot on target in four of his last five and an average of one a game. He is 1.57 at bet365 for a shot on target.
Strahinja Pavlović has committed a foul in each of his last five, 1.40 at Midnite for at least one, and our model also rates him likely to have a shot, at 2.75 for two or more.
Koni De Winter has also fouled in each of his last five games, with three in two of them, and is the same 1.40 at Midnite.
We back AC Milan to win, and the best price is 1.85 at Midnite. Salzburg are 4.00 at bet365 and the draw is also 4.00 there.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Salzburg win | 4.00 (bet365) | 24% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 24% |
| AC Milan win | 1.85 (Midnite) | 53% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 58% |
Our model has Milan scoring 1.85 goals to Salzburg's 1.18 and makes both teams scoring a 59% chance. 1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Milan clearly more likely to win, so a draw is in play. Our prediction is Salzburg 1-1 AC Milan.
If you prefer a build, our model's four-leg combination is Ramos and Baidoo each to have a shot on target, with Pavlović and De Winter each to commit a foul, at a combined 3.68.