Olympique Lyonnais host Crystal Palace at the Groupama Stadium on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 17:45 UK, in a Europa League league-stage game with both sides on three points from one match. Lyon scored twice to win at Anderlecht, while Palace thrashed Lech Poznań 4-0, and that contrast between a side that scores and concedes and a side that has just kept a clean sheet gives the game its edge.
The model sees goals at both ends. We project 1.59 for Lyon and 1.37 for Palace, which leaves both teams to score at 60% and Lyon with the narrowest of edges.
Lyon sit 10th in the 36-team Europa League table after a 2-1 win away at Anderlecht on 16 September. They had the 2nd most shots on target of any side on the opening matchday.
Domestically, Lyon have been up and down. They beat Auxerre 3-1 and held Paris to a 0-0 draw in early September, then thrashed Rennes 4-0 on 19 September. Their last outing was a 2-1 defeat at Lens on 9 October, so they arrive having lost their most recent game.
Crystal Palace are 2nd in the table after that 4-0 win over Lech Poznań, a game in which they kept a clean sheet.
Their recent form is strong, though not flawless. Palace beat Forest 3-1 last Sunday, drew 0-0 at Leeds on 20 September and lost 2-3 to Ipswich on 12 September. Of their last five, the Ipswich game is the only defeat.
Olympique Lyonnais possible starting lineup:
Descamps; Athekame, Mata, Kluivert, Abner; Tessmann, Morton, Boudache; Nakamura, Nartey, Sulc
Crystal Palace possible starting lineup:
BenÃtez; Richards, Disasi, Ahanor; Khalaili, Wharton, Timber, Mitchell; Kamada, Pino; Strand Larsen
Jørgen Strand Larsen has put a shot on target in four of his last five games, with twice-over efforts in three of them, and he leads Palace's line. He is 1.57 at bet365 for a shot on target.
Quinten Timber has made at least two tackles in each of his last five games, with a high of three. He is 1.50 at bet365 for two or more tackles, and with our model projecting 16.60 tackles for Palace to Lyon's 13.85, he should be busy again.
Ruben Kluivert has matched that, with two or more tackles in each of his last five, including three in four of them. He is 1.62 at bet365 for two or more.
Zachary Athekame has committed a foul in each of his last five games and is 1.36 at bet365 for one or more, with 1.50 available at Ladbrokes and Coral.
Chris Richards is a player our model rates higher than the books do. He is 2.00 for a foul and 4.50 for a shot on target.
We back Lyon, slightly, at 2.20 with bet365, with Palace at 3.10 and the draw at 3.70. Our model gives Lyon 42% to win, Palace 32% and the draw 25%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon win | 2.20 (bet365) | 42% |
| Draw | 3.70 (bet365) | 25% |
| Palace win | 3.10 (bet365) | 32% |
| Both teams to score | 1.55 (Ladbrokes) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 (bet365) | 80% |
Our prediction is Olympique Lyonnais 1-1 Crystal Palace, with a draw very much in play. 2-1 is the next likeliest score, though we make Lyon slightly more likely to win.
Goals look likely at both ends: we put both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%. The referee, João Pedro Silva Pinheiro, has averaged 3.25 yellow cards across his four games this season.
For a bet builder, four legs combine for 5.19: Timber two or more tackles, Kluivert two or more tackles, Athekame one or more fouls and Strand Larsen a shot on target.