AZ welcome Hapoel Be'er Sheva to the AFAS Stadion on Thursday 15 October, with kick-off at 17:45 UK, and the hosts badly need a result. They sit 25th of 36 in the Europa League table with no points after a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland, while Hapoel Be'er Sheva are 18th after a goalless draw at home to Dinamo Zagreb.
Bookmakers make AZ clear favourites at 1.30 with bet365, with the draw at 6.00 and the visitors at 9.50. The Israeli champions arrive with a clean sheet to their name, and AZ come in on the back of a 2-0 loss at Feyenoord.
AZ have won six of their last ten in all competitions, but the latest chapter is rougher. They lost 2-0 at Feyenoord on 10 October, having beaten Telstar 1-0 at home on 20 September. Their Europa League opener was a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland. Before that, they drew 1-1 with Willem II and won 3-2 at Heerenveen.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva reached this stage through Champions League qualifying. They beat Crvena Zvezda over two legs, winning 1-0 at home and 2-0 away, then edged Sabah 2-1 at home before losing the return 5-2 in Azerbaijan. Their 0-0 draw at home to Dinamo Zagreb gave them a clean sheet in their only European game so far.
AZ possible starting lineup:
De Busser; Dijkstra, Goes, Schouten, Chávez; Koopmeiners, Clasie; Byskov, Oufkir, Daal; Meerdink
Hapoel Be'er Sheva possible starting lineup:
Marciano; Mizrahi, VÃtor, Amador, Diop; Kanaan, Ventura, Forson; East, Zlatanovic, João Victor
Ro-Zangelo Daal has had a shot on target in four of his last five games, and he is 1.40 at bet365 to add another here. He is AZ's most reliable route to a shot on target.
Mateo Chávez has committed a foul in each of his last five matches, averaging 2.2 a game, and he is 1.44 with Ladbrokes.
On the Israeli side, Amankwah Forson has had a shot in four of his last five, including five in his latest outing, and is 1.44 at bet365. Pedro Amador is 2.63 for a shot and ranks high on our model, while Guy Mizrahi is 3.00 for a shot and 7.00 for one on target.
We back AZ at 1.30 with bet365. They are at home and need the points, while Be'er Sheva arrive with one point from one game. Beyond the result, the interest lies in the player markets above.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| AZ to win | 1.30 (bet365) | - |
| Draw | 6.00 (Coral) | - |
| Be'er Sheva to win | 9.50 (Midnite) | - |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 (Ladbrokes) | - |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 (bet365) | - |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | - |
Expect AZ to take the three points at home. Over 1.5 goals is 1.14 at bet365 and over 2.5 is 1.50, so the market expects goals even though Be'er Sheva kept a clean sheet in their opener.