TSG Hoffenheim host Beşiktaş at PreZero Arena on Thursday 15 October, with kick-off at 20:00 UK time, in a Europa League league-stage game that puts a side with no points against one with a 4-1 win already banked. Hoffenheim sit 29th of 36 after losing 2-0 away at OFI. Beşiktaş are 4th on three points, courtesy of that win over Marseille.
The model still leans towards the home side, though not by much.
Hoffenheim have lost four of their last five games. They lost 2-3 to Hamburg at home on 10 October, went down 3-1 at Paderborn before that, and lost 2-0 at OFI in their Europa League opener. The one bright spot in the last five is a 2-1 home win over Stuttgart on 12 September. They have also conceded three in a home game twice in that run, including the 2-3 defeat to Dortmund.
Hoffenheim committed more fouls than any other side on the opening matchday.
Beşiktaş have won eight of their last ten, with defeats at Amed SK (3-2 on 20 September) and one earlier in the run. The Marseille win was the standout, 4-1 at home, and they followed it by beating Kocaelispor 2-1 on 11 October. Before that came a 3-0 win over Erzurumspor and a 2-1 win at Fenerbahçe.
They have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their recent games.
TSG Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Coufal, Kabak, Rots, Machida; Avdullahu, Burger, Conté, De Cat; Hlozek, Lemperle
Beşiktaş possible starting lineup:
Nübel; Murillo, Topçu, Agbadou, Ouattara; Özcan, Olaitan, Fakili; Kökçü, Trossard, Vlahović
Dušan Vlahović has had a shot on target in each of his last five games, with a 4 in the most recent, and is 1.20 at bet365 to get one here. He leads the Beşiktaş line.
Wouter Burger has had at least one shot in each of his last five, averaging 2.4 a game and reaching 5 in one of them. He is 1.14 at bet365 for a shot.
Tim Lemperle has had a shot on target in four of his last five and is 1.22 at bet365 to do it again. Amir Murillo is 3.50 at bet365 for a shot on target, a price our model rates better than the market does.
Ozan Kabak has committed a foul in each of his last five games, in a Hoffenheim side that committed more fouls than any other on the opening matchday.
We back Hoffenheim, who are 1.95 at Ladbrokes to win at home. Beşiktaş are 3.50 at bet365 and the draw is 4.00 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim win | 1.95 (Ladbrokes) | 49% |
| Draw | 4.00 (bet365) | 24% |
| Beşiktaş win | 3.50 (bet365) | 27% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (bet365) | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 61% |
We project 1.84 goals for Hoffenheim and 1.31 for Beşiktaş. The likeliest single scoreline is 1-1, so a draw is in play, though we make Hoffenheim the likelier winner and 2-1 is the next most probable score at around 10%. Both teams to score is a 62% chance and over 2.5 goals 61%, which fits a Hoffenheim side who have scored in all but one of their last five and conceded in all five.
Our prediction: Hoffenheim 1-1 Beşiktaş.