AFC Bournemouth host Sturm Graz at the Vitality Stadium on Thursday 15 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in a Europa League league-stage game that pits a home side with 3 points from one match against an Austrian club that took a goalless draw in its opener. Bournemouth beat Sociedad 2-1 away on matchday one and sit 12th of 36. Sturm Graz held Rennes 0-0 and are 20th.
Bournemouth come into Europe having lost 5-1 at Chelsea last weekend, so this is a chance to put that right in front of their own crowd. Sturm Graz, by contrast, are fresh from a 2-0 win at Austria Wien.
Bournemouth's last five have swung wildly. They beat Lincoln 4-0 in the Carabao Cup, drew 2-2 with Brentford, won 2-1 at Sociedad in this competition, then lost 0-1 to Liverpool and 1-5 at Chelsea. They have lost their last two in the league, though Europe has been kinder: they are 12th in the Europa League table with a win from their one game.
Their win at Sociedad had both teams scoring and more than 2.5 goals.
Sturm Graz tell a different story. Their opening game was a 0-0 home draw with Rennes. They lost 3-0 at Salzburg in the Austrian Bundesliga on 20 September and won 2-0 at Austria Wien on 10 October.
AFC Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Petrovic; Smith, Hill, Silva, Truffert; Adams, Tavernier; Brooks, Christie, Rayan; Evanilson
Sturm Graz possible starting lineup:
Khudyakov; Quarshie, Vallci, Koller, Balbo; Weinhandl, Hödl; Heil, Seidl, Matoshi; Beganovic
Tyler Adams has committed at least one foul in each of his last five games, averaging 2.6, and bet365 have him at 1.25 to do it again.
James Hill has made at least one tackle in all five of his recent games, averaging 2.2, with two four-tackle outings in that run. He is 1.30 for a tackle at bet365.
Marcus Tavernier has also made a tackle in each of his last five, averaging 1.4, and is 1.30 at bet365. Combine him with Hill and Adams and the three-leg bet builder pays 2.11.
Adrien Truffert is a longer shot: our model rates him likelier than the 13.00 price suggests to land two shots on target.
On the Sturm Graz side, Paul Koller is the one to look at for fouls: our model has him among the likeliest in the match to commit two, and he is 3.40 for it.
We back AFC Bournemouth to win at 1.22 with Ladbrokes. Sturm Graz are 13.00 with Midnite and the draw is 7.50 with Coral.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth win | 1.22 (Ladbrokes) | 81% |
| Draw | 7.50 (Coral) | 13% |
| Sturm Graz win | 13.00 (Midnite) | 6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 (bet365) | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 (bet365) | 70% |
Our model projects 2.86 goals for Bournemouth against 0.73 for Sturm Graz, and the likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, with 3-0 close behind. Bournemouth to keep a clean sheet is 48%, and the over 2.5 goals line is at 70%. Our prediction: AFC Bournemouth 2-0 Sturm Graz.