Union Saint-Gilloise host Hapoel Be'er Sheva at the Merkur Spiel-Arena on Thursday 22 October, with kick-off at 17:45 UK, in the Europa League league stage. The hosts have lost only once in their last ten and arrive with the best shots-on-target average of any side in the competition. The visitors are looking for their first win of the campaign.
Union are 12th in the league-stage table on 4 points from two games, with four goals scored and one conceded. Be'er Sheva are 24th of 36 on 1 point, having drawn one and lost one.
Union have been hard to beat all season. They opened the Europa League with a 3-0 win at Plzeň and followed it with a 1-1 draw at home to Sociedad. In the Belgian Pro League they drew 1-1 with OH Leuven last Sunday, after wins of 2-0 at Antwerp and 5-0 against Lommel SK. They have lost once in their last ten, and their two most recent games were draws.
The numbers behind that are strong at both ends. Union average 2 goals a game, concede 0.5 and average 9 shots on target a game, and they have kept a clean sheet in half their games.
Be'er Sheva come in on a leaner run. They lost 2-1 at AZ last time out and drew 0-0 at home to Dinamo Zagreb in their opener. Before that came a Champions League qualifying tie against Sabah, a 2-1 home win followed by a 5-2 defeat in the return. They average just 0.5 goals and 3 shots on target a game in this competition and concede one a game, so they are not easy to break down but have struggled to create at the other end.
Union Saint-Gilloise possible starting lineup:
Koffi; Chibani, Van De Perre, Sylla, Garcia; Patris, Olaru, Zeneli; Smith, Biondic, Mofokeng
Hapoel Be'er Sheva possible starting lineup:
Marciano; Mizrahi, VÃtor, Amador, Diop; Peretz, Forson, Yehoshua; Abu Rumi, Zlatanovic, Ahmed
Mateo Biondic has put a shot on target in four of his last five games, 6 in total, and is 1.25 at bet365 to do it again.
Relebohile Mofokeng has registered a shot on target in four of his last five, including three in a single game, and is 1.30 at bet365 to get one on Thursday.
Louis Patris has committed at least one foul in each of his last five games, averaging 1.8 across them, and is 1.30 at Midnite to make it six.
For the visitors, Amankwah Forson has had a shot in four of his last five and is 1.33 at bet365. Pedro Amador is 2.63 for a shot, which our model ranks second likeliest in the match.
The bookmakers have Union as clear favourites at 1.33 with Coral, with the draw at 5.75 at bet365 and Be'er Sheva at 9.50 with Midnite. Goals look likely too: over 1.5 is 1.14 and both teams to score is 1.80, both at bet365. The interest sits in the player markets, where Union's shooters have the recent record to back them.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Union Saint-Gilloise to win | 1.33 (Coral) | - |
| Draw | 5.75 (bet365) | - |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva to win | 9.50 (Midnite) | - |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | - |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | - |
We expect Union to win at home, with Biondic and Mofokeng the likeliest sources of shots on target, and Be'er Sheva's thin attacking numbers making a big away score unlikely.