Lens welcome Sporting CP to Stade Bollaert-Delelis on Tuesday 13 October, with kick-off at 5:45pm UK, in a Champions League league-stage game that opened with a goal-filled night for both clubs. Each won their first match 3-1 or 3-2 and each conceded along the way, so the visitors' Luis Suárez and the hosts' Florian Thauvin may be the names to follow in a game our model expects to have goals at both ends.
Lens are 10th in the league-stage table and Sporting CP are 6th, both on 3 points from one game.
Lens won 3-2 at Slavia Praha on matchday one. They also conceded twice, and Lens have yet to keep a clean sheet.
Domestically it has been a mixed month. They beat Lyon 2-1 on Friday 9 October at home in Ligue 1, after a 2-1 defeat at Monaco and a 2-2 draw at Le Mans. The one other loss in that run was a 1-0 home defeat to Lorient.
Sporting CP's form is steadier. They beat Galatasaray 3-1 in their opening league-stage game and followed it with a 1-1 draw at Famalicão and a 2-2 draw with Arouca. They won 3-1 at Braga on Friday and have not lost in their last five.
Both clubs scored three in their only league-stage game and both conceded, so both teams scored and the game went over 2.5 goals in each.
Lens possible starting lineup:
Risser; Aguilar, Gradit, Ganiou, Udol; Titraoui, Cuisance, Antonio; Thauvin, Sotoca, Édouard
Sporting CP possible starting lineup:
Rui Silva; Vagiannidis, Quaresma, Inácio, Araújo; Altimira, Doumbia; Catamo, Zalazar, LuÃs Guilherme; Suárez
Luis Suárez has had a shot on target in each of his last five games, with seven in total, and our bet builder has him to repeat it at 1.50 with bet365. That makes him the standout name for the visitors up front.
Florian Thauvin has had a shot on target in four of his last five, 10 in all, and is 1.67 with bet365 to do it again.
Geny Catamo has had at least one shot in each of his last five games, with 11 in total at an average of 2.2. For a player in that sort of form, 1.22 with bet365 for a shot is a lot of consistency to lean on.
LuÃs Guilherme has also had a shot in each of his last five, 6 in total, and is 1.30 with bet365. On the foul side, Catamo at 1.67 for a foul and Michal Skoras at 1.40 for Lens come up well in our model's player projections.
We back Lens narrowly, and the best price is 2.50 with bet365 for a home win. The draw is 3.80 with BoyleSports and Sporting CP are 2.62 with Ladbrokes. Both teams to score is 1.50 with bet365 and over 2.5 goals is 1.57.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Lens win | 2.50 (bet365) | 39% |
| Draw | 3.80 (BoyleSports) | 23% |
| Sporting CP win | 2.62 (Ladbrokes) | 37% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 68% |
Our model has Lens scoring 1.78 and Sporting CP 1.73, so goals look likely at both ends. Neither side has a high chance of a clean sheet, at 18% for Lens and 17% for Sporting. 1-1 is the likeliest score at around 10%, though we make Lens slightly more likely to win, and a draw is in play. We predict Lens 1-1 Sporting CP.