Updated 12 October 2026.
Arsenal welcome LOSC Lille to the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in the Champions League league stage. The Gunners won their opener at Napoli and arrive on the back of a 2-1 home win over Leeds. Lille lost 3-2 to Betis on matchday one and sit 24th in the 36-team table.
Our model has this as one of the more lopsided games on the card. Arsenal are 74.5% to win, and We make it 89.3% that Arsenal score at least once.
Arsenal are 15th in the Champions League table with 3 points from one game, and the win that got them there was a 1-0 at Napoli, which also gave them the goals-against record to match: the fewest of any side in the competition so far. They have won nine of their last ten across all competitions, the exception a 3-0 defeat at Brighton on 19 September. Since then they have beaten Leeds 2-1 at home, and before the Brighton game came a 4-2 win at Ipswich in the Carabao Cup and a 2-0 win at Sunderland.
Lille are 24th with no points after that 3-2 home defeat to Betis. Domestically they have been steadier, with a 1-0 win over Le Havre on Saturday and a 2-0 win over Troyes before a 2-1 loss at Nice. Their games have been open: both teams scored in their Champions League opener and Lille rank 10th most for goals conceded per game, while their own shots on target are the 15th fewest.
Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Raya; White, Gabriel, Konsa, Calafiori; Rice, Merino; Saka, Ødegaard, Eze; Gyökeres
LOSC Lille possible starting lineup:
Özer; Ngoy, Alexsandro, Nianzou, Perraud; Bentaleb, André; Bakwa, Haraldsson, Perrin; Ueda
Viktor Gyökeres has had a shot on target in four of his last five games and is 1.20 at bet365 to do it again.
Riccardo Calafiori has had a shot in each of his last five, never fewer than one, and is 1.18 at bet365 for another.
For Lille, Benjamin André has made at least two tackles in each of his last five games, with a high of four, and is 1.36 at bet365 for two or more. Hákon Arnar Haraldsson has made at least one tackle in each of his last five and is 1.30 at bet365.
Among the fouls markets, Gabriel Magalhães is 1.83 for one or more fouls and 5.50 for two or more, and our model ranks him likelier than those prices suggest.
We back Arsenal to beat Lille, with the best price 1.25 at Ladbrokes. The bookmakers agree with the model on the result, so the interest sits in the player markets above.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 1.25 (Ladbrokes) | 74.5% |
| Draw | 6.50 (bet365) | 17.6% |
| Lille win | 12.00 (bet365) | 7.9% |
| Both teams to score | 2.15 (Ladbrokes) | 40.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 (bet365) | 77.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 53.5% |
We predict Arsenal 2-0 Lille. The model projects 2.23 goals for Arsenal against 0.59 for Lille, and gives Arsenal a 55.4% chance of a clean sheet. A 1-0 win is the next likeliest scoreline at 12.9%, ahead of 3-0 at 11.0%. A 2-1 win is not out of reach at 8.7%.
Arsenal vs Lille kicks off at 8pm UK on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at the Emirates Stadium.
We predict Arsenal 2-0 Lille. The model gives Arsenal a 74.5% chance of winning, with a 1-0 win the next likeliest scoreline.
Arsenal are the clear favourites, priced at 1.25 with Ladbrokes. Lille are 12.00 and the draw is 6.50, both at bet365.
Our model gives both teams to score a 40.2% chance. Arsenal are projected 2.23 goals and Lille 0.59, and Arsenal have a 55.4% chance of a clean sheet.
Arsenal are 15th with 3 points from one game. Lille are 24th with no points after a 3-2 defeat to Betis.
Viktor Gyökeres has had a shot on target in four of his last five games, and is 1.20 at bet365 to have one against Lille.
Arsenal: Raya; White, Gabriel, Konsa, Calafiori; Rice, Merino; Saka, Ødegaard, Eze; Gyökeres. Lille: Özer; Ngoy, Alexsandro, Nianzou, Perraud; Bentaleb, André; Bakwa, Haraldsson, Perrin; Ueda.