Como welcome Manchester United to the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia on Wednesday 21 October, kick-off 17:45 UK, in the Champions League League Stage. The two clubs sit one place apart on the same 3 points after two games, and they arrive with very different habits: Como's games have been full of goals at both ends, while United have been grinding out low-scoring results.
Como are 12th in the league phase table with six goals scored and four conceded. Manchester United are 13th with four scored and two conceded. Both have won one and lost one.
Como lost 3-2 at Feyenoord in their last European outing on 14 October, a game that fits the pattern of their Champions League campaign so far: both teams to score in all of their games and over 2.5 goals every time. They have scored six in two games but kept no clean sheet. Domestically they bounced back well, winning 3-1 at Fiorentina on Sunday, a result that came after a 0-0 draw with Roma. Across their last ten games they have won six, drawn two and lost two, with the most recent result a win.
Manchester United's form is flatter. They lost 2-0 at Atlético on 13 October and followed it with a 1-1 draw at Leeds on Sunday. Before that came a 1-1 draw with Spurs and another 1-1 at Fulham, so three of their last four games have ended level, and they went out of the Carabao Cup with a 3-2 home defeat to Brighton. In Europe they have conceded two in two games and kept a clean sheet in one.
Como possible starting lineup:
Sánchez; Smolcic, Ramón, Valle; Perrone, Milla, Kaiki; RodrÃguez, Baturina, Paz
Manchester United possible starting lineup:
Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Heaven, Mazraoui; Baleba, Santos, Tielemans; Fernandes, Mbeumo, Cunha
Bryan Mbeumo is the clearest shooting angle on the United side. He has had at least two shots in each of his last five games, with totals of 3, 2, 2, 2 and 5, an average of 2.8, and 2+ shots is 1.33 at bet365.
Carlos Baleba has had a shot in each of his last five matches, and one or more shots is 1.40 at bet365. Bruno Fernandes has hit the target in four of his last five, with 1+ shots on target at 1.57.
Youri Tielemans has committed at least one foul in each of his last five games, averaging 1.4, and one or more fouls is 1.36 at bet365.
We back Como at 2.20 with bet365: our model makes them 43% to win, with Manchester United on 32% and the draw on 25%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Como win | 2.20 (bet365) | 43% |
| Draw | 3.75 (midnite) | 25% |
| Manchester United win | 3.00 (bet365) | 32% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 61% |
Our projection is 1.7 goals for Como and 1.44 for United, and the scoreline we predict is 1-1. A draw is in play, though we make Como the more likely winner. 2-1 to the hosts is the next likeliest score at 9%, ahead of 1-2 at 8%. Both teams to score is 1.50 at bet365 and over 2.5 goals is 1.57, and our model rates those at 63% and 61%, which fits a Como side whose league-stage games have both had goals at both ends.