Manchester City host Paris Saint Germain at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday 14 October, kick-off 8pm UK, with both sides unbeaten in the Champions League so far. City have the best defensive record in the competition after one game and PSG have the most goals, which is the story of this league-stage clash.
City opened with a 2-0 win at Porto and sit 8th in the league phase table on 3 points. PSG are 1st after a 6-1 win over Slovan, and no side in the competition has scored more or taken more shots on target.
City have won eight of their last ten and are on a five-game winning run. Sunday's 3-0 win at Liverpool was the latest, following a 5-3 home win over Sunderland, a 5-0 Carabao Cup win against Norwich and a 1-0 win at Manchester United. In Europe they have kept a clean sheet in their only game, the 2-0 win at Porto, and have had the 3rd most shots on target of any side in the competition.
PSG have won four of their last five, with the exception a 2-1 home defeat by Monaco in early September. Since then they have hammered Slovan 6-1, won 1-0 at Brest and 2-1 at Marseille, and beaten Le Mans 3-1 on Saturday. They are the most prolific side in the competition for goals and, with 14 shots on target in their opener, for shots on target as well.
City kept a clean sheet in their only European game, while PSG let in a goal against Slovan, and our model gives them an 18% chance of keeping City out.
Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Guéhi, Gvardiol; Bouaddi, Fernández; Semenyo, Foden, Doku; Haaland
Paris Saint Germain possible starting lineup:
Safonov; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Vitinha, Neves, Ruiz; Doué, Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia
Erling Haaland has had a shot on target in four of his last five games and averages two a game over that run. He had four in each of his last two outings, and he is 1.18 at bet365 to test the keeper at least once.
João Neves has had at least one shot in each of his last five games, with three against Slovan, and averages 1.8 a game over that run. The 1+ shots price is 1.36 at bet365.
Achraf Hakimi has had a shot in four of his last five, averaging 2.4, with five in one of those games. He is 1.30 at bet365 for 1+ shots.
Désiré Doué has had a shot on target in four of his last five and is 1.57 at bet365 to do it again.
Those four make our player-market combination: Neves 1+ shots, Haaland 1+ shots on target, Doué 1+ shots on target and Hakimi 1+ shots, which comes to 3.47 combined.
We back Manchester City, who are 2.20 at Ladbrokes. PSG are 3.00 at bet365, the draw is 4.00 at Midnite, and both teams to score is 1.40 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City to win | 2.20 (Ladbrokes) | 43% |
| Draw | 4.00 (Midnite) | 24% |
| Paris Saint Germain to win | 3.00 (bet365) | 32% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 61% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 11%, though we make City the more likely winner at 43% to 32% for PSG. A draw is clearly in play. We project 1.71 goals for City and 1.45 for PSG, and with both defences conceding often, both teams to score is a 63% chance in our model.