Updated 2 November 2026.
FC Barcelona host Aston Villa at Spotify Camp Nou on Tuesday 3 November, kick-off 8pm UK, in a Champions League league phase game that pits the hosts' attack against a Villa side that hasn't dropped a point in Europe. Barcelona sit 8th in the table with 6 points from 3 games, and Villa are 2nd with a perfect 9 from 9.
Both sides score freely. Barcelona have 11 goals from three European games, Villa 12, and neither has had a European game this season finish with fewer than three goals. Villa arrive with the better European record, but we still make Barcelona 74% to win.
Barcelona have scored 11 and conceded 6 in the league phase table, with two wins and one defeat. Their goals-for average of 3.67 per game is the 4th most among the 81 teams in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, and every one of their three European games has had both teams scoring and more than 2.5 goals. They have yet to keep a clean sheet in Europe.
The league phase defeat came in Paris, where Barcelona lost 4-2 to PSG on 20 October. They went down 2-1 at home to Real Madrid in La Liga on 25 October, then won 6-1 against Alaves on Saturday. Before the PSG game they had won seven in a row, including 4-1 at Galatasaray and 5-2 at Betis.
Barcelona's shots on target average 8.33 a game, the 6th most of the 81 teams, and we project 7.43 for them on Tuesday.
Villa have scored 12 and conceded 3 in Europe, with goals against the 10th fewest and goals for the 2nd most of the 81 teams. They average 10 shots on target a game, also the 2nd most, and 7.33 corners, the 9th most. They won 3-1 against Viking on 21 October and followed it with a 2-1 home win over Man City three days later. Since then they lost 3-0 at Bournemouth in the Carabao Cup and drew 1-1 at home to Fulham on Saturday. Before that they'd won 1-0 at Newcastle.
FC Barcelona possible starting lineup:
Joan GarcÃa; Cancelo, Koundé, CubarsÃ, Gerard MartÃn; Rodri, Pedri, FermÃn López; Yamal, Gordon, Raphinha
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Suzuki; Cash, Lindelöf, Pau Torres, Maatsen; McGinn, Barkley, Alysson; BuendÃa, Mbaye, Jackson
Nicolas Jackson has had two or more shots on target in each of his three European games, averaging 2.7 a match, and three or more shots in all three at four per game. Across his last five he has put at least one shot on target every time, and he is 1.62 at bet365 to do it again.
Lamine Yamal has had three or more shots in each of Barcelona's three European games, averaging 4.3. He has also made at least one tackle in every one of them, averaging 2 a game.
FermÃn López has hit the target in all three European games and has had at least two shots in each, 2.3 per game on average. He is 1.33 at Coral for a shot on target.
João Cancelo has had a shot in all three of Barcelona's European games, averaging 1.7, and is 1.30 at bet365 to keep that going.
John McGinn has made at least two tackles in each of Villa's three European games, averaging three, and he is 1.80 at bet365 to do it again.
We back Barcelona, who are 1.25 at bet365 to win, with Villa at 10.00 at Midnite and the draw 7.50 at bet365. The bookmakers and our model agree on the result.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona win | 1.25 (bet365) | 74% |
| Draw | 7.50 (bet365) | 15% |
| Aston Villa win | 10.00 (Midnite) | 11% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 (bet365) | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.20 (bet365) | 75% |
Our model projects 2.85 goals for Barcelona and 1.07 for Villa, with a 2-1 Barcelona win as the likeliest single scoreline at 8.6%. 3-1 at 8.2% and 2-0 at 8.1% follow close behind. Over 3.5 goals is a 55% chance.
Our prediction: FC Barcelona 2-1 Aston Villa.
Barcelona vs Aston Villa kicks off at 8pm UK on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at Spotify Camp Nou, in the 2026/27 Champions League league phase. Barcelona are 8th of 36 on 6 points and Villa are 2nd on 9.
We predict Barcelona to beat Aston Villa 2-1 in the 2026/27 Champions League league phase. Our model gives Barcelona a 74% chance of winning, with a 15% chance of a draw and 11% for Villa.
Our model gives both teams to score a 62% chance in Barcelona vs Aston Villa in the 2026/27 Champions League, with over 2.5 goals at 75%. Barcelona have had both teams score in all 3 of their league phase games.
Ahead of Barcelona vs Aston Villa, Barcelona are 8th and Aston Villa 2nd in the 36-team 2026/27 Champions League league phase. Villa have 9 points from 3 wins, while Barcelona have 6 points from 2 wins and 1 defeat.
Nicolas Jackson has had 2 or more shots on target in each of Aston Villa's 3 games in the 2026/27 Champions League, averaging 2.7 a game, ahead of the match against Barcelona on 3 November. He has also had 3 or more shots in all 3, averaging 4.0.
Barcelona's possible starting lineup against Aston Villa in the 2026/27 Champions League on 3 November is Joan GarcÃa; Cancelo, Koundé, CubarsÃ, Gerard MartÃn; Rodri, Pedri, FermÃn López; Yamal, Gordon, Raphinha. Yamal has averaged 4.3 shots across Barcelona's 3 league phase games.