RB Leipzig welcome Eintracht Frankfurt to Red Bull Arena on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 17:30 UK. Leipzig sit 9th, Frankfurt 10th, and the Bundesliga's most reliable source of goals meets a home side that can pile them on. Frankfurt's league games this season have all featured goals at both ends, and Leipzig have scored five or more in a game already.
RB Leipzig are 9th with 6 points from 4 games, built on two wins and two defeats. Their last league outing was a 2-0 loss at Leverkusen on 20 September, which came a week after a 5-0 win over Hamburg. In between came a 4-1 defeat at Como in the Champions League, and before that a 3-1 loss at Bremen. At home they have been far more convincing, with a 3-0 win over Gladbach to open the campaign.
The defence is where Leipzig stand out. They have kept clean sheets in half their games, the 2nd highest rate in the league, and concede the 5th fewest goals per game. Up front they lead the shots on target charts too, with the 5th most per game, and they win the 3rd most corners.
Eintracht Frankfurt are 10th with 5 points from 4, having won once and drawn twice. They drew 2-2 at home to Freiburg last time out, after a 3-1 win at Mainz and a 4-1 home defeat to Augsburg. Their opening league game was a 3-3 draw at Union Berlin.
Every Frankfurt game has seen both sides score and every one has gone over 2.5 goals, both the highest rates in the division. They have yet to keep a clean sheet and concede 2.5 a game, the 5th most. They also collect cards, with the 4th most per game.
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Vandevoordt; Baku, Orbán, Lukeba, Raum; Seiwald, Banzuzi, El Aynaoui; Nusa, Nkunku, Rômulo
Eintracht Frankfurt possible starting lineup:
Atubolu; Collins, Koch, Brassier, Kosugi; Onyedika, Uzun; Doan, Burkardt, Ebnoutalib
Willi Orbán has had a shot in all four Leipzig games this season, a run that ranks 21st in the Bundesliga, and he is 1.67 at bet365 to make it five.
Antonio Nusa has managed two or more shots in each of his four appearances, averaging 2.5 a game, and is 1.20 at bet365 to do it again.
Ezechiel Banzuzi has made two or more tackles in four straight games, averaging 2.3, and has committed a foul in each of them too. He is 1.40 at bet365 for the tackles.
Jonathan Burkardt is Frankfurt's most dangerous runner, with three or more shots in three straight games and 3.3 a game over that spell. Ladbrokes have him at 2.30 to go again.
Can Uzun has taken two or more shots in three in a row and is 1.62 at bet365 to extend that. Raphael Onyedika has committed two or more fouls in three straight games, and Ladbrokes make him 3.00 to repeat it.
We back RB Leipzig, who are 1.57 at bet365 to win at home. Our model gives them a 63% chance, with the draw at 19% and Frankfurt at 18%. The bookmakers price the draw at 4.80 at Ladbrokes and a Frankfurt win at 5.00 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 1.57 (bet365) | 63% |
| Draw | 4.80 (Ladbrokes) | 19% |
| Frankfurt win | 5.00 (bet365) | 18% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (Ladbrokes) | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.30 (bet365) | 73% |
We expect Leipzig to score around 2.5 goals and Frankfurt just over one, and we predict a 2-1 home win. A draw is in play, with 1-1 the second likeliest scoreline. Frankfurt's run of games with goals at both ends fits the projection of a 67% chance that both teams score, and Leipzig's defensive record is the best reason to expect them to stay ahead of it.