FC Union Berlin welcome Elversberg to the Stadion An der Alten Försterei on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 14:30 UK, and the table makes for an odd picture. The hosts are 17th with a single point from four games and have shipped 17 goals. Elversberg are 7th on 7 points and arrive having scored in every one of their last four.
Union are still the slight favourites on our numbers, but a side leaking more than four goals a game will not fancy a visit from an attack that has been finding the net so freely.
Union's start to the season has been rough. They have lost three of four in the league, and the 7-0 defeat at Bayern a week ago came on top of a 1-3 home loss to Schalke and a 4-0 beating at Leverkusen. The one bright spot was a 3-3 draw with Frankfurt on the opening weekend. Their league position reflects a goals-against figure of 4.25 per game, the most in the division.
Every one of their games this season has gone over 2.5 goals, the highest rate in the league, and they sit 3rd for cards. At the other end they have been short of corners, with only the 2nd fewest in the competition.
Elversberg are the reverse of that story. They beat Leverkusen 3-2 at home, won a 4-3 thriller at Gladbach, lost 1-2 to Bayern and then held Schalke to a 0-0 draw last time out. That is two wins, a draw and a defeat, with eight goals scored and seven conceded.
Both teams have scored in 75% of Elversberg's games, the 5th highest rate in the league, and they have kept a clean sheet in one of four. Their shots on target sit at 4.5 a game, the 5th fewest, so the goals are coming from sharp finishing rather than volume.
FC Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Rönnow; Trimmel, Uduokhai, Querfeld, Rothe; Khedira, Kemlein, Aebischer; Jeong, Burcu, Latte Lath
Elversberg possible starting lineup:
Kristof; Gyamerah, Rohr, Pinckert, Günther; Poręba, Keidel, Petkov; Campbell, Onyeka, Mokwa
Rani Khedira is the busiest name in the Union side. He has committed a foul in four straight games, averaging 1.3 a game and priced at 1.44 with Ladbrokes for another, and he has made a tackle in each of those four as well. Alongside him, Tom Rothe has made at least one tackle in every game this season at three a game.
Leopold Querfeld is one for the shots and fouls markets. We rate him likelier to commit a foul than the bookmakers do, and he is 1.44 for one foul and 2.10 for a shot. His recent record is thinner than the model's view of him, so treat that as the model leaning in rather than a long run behind it.
For Elversberg, Lukas Petkov has made a tackle in all four games at 3.8 a game, and right-back Jan Gyamerah has done the same at 2.5. Up front, David Mokwa has fouled in three straight games and is 1.53 with Ladbrokes to do it again.
We back Union Berlin to avoid defeat, with the hosts at 2.30 with bet365 to win, ahead of Elversberg at 2.90. Our model gives the hosts a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and the visitors 32%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin win | 2.30 (bet365) | 43% |
| Draw | 3.80 (Ladbrokes) | 26% |
| Elversberg win | 2.90 (bet365) | 32% |
| Both teams to score | 1.48 (Ladbrokes) | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 58% |
We expect goals. Union have had over 2.5 in every league game so far, and Elversberg have scored in all four of theirs. We project 1.64 goals for the hosts and 1.39 for the visitors, and a 1-1 draw is the likeliest score, though we make Union slightly more likely to win.
Player-market interest centres on the fouls and tackles runs above, with Khedira, Mokwa and Querfeld the main names. Referee Tobias Reichel has taken one game this season.
Our prediction: Union Berlin 1-1 Elversberg.