FC Union Berlin host Borussia Dortmund at Stadion An der Alten Försterei on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 14:30 UK. It pairs the Bundesliga's meanest defence with the league's second-leakiest.
Dortmund are 2nd in the table on 13 points from five games. Union are 16th on 4 points. Dortmund come in off a 1-0 defeat at Bodø / Glimt in the Champions League on Wednesday.
Union have won once in five league games, and the scorelines tell the story. They drew 3-3 with Frankfurt, lost 4-0 at Leverkusen, lost 3-1 at home to Schalke and were beaten 7-0 by Bayern. Last time out they got a 1-0 win over Elversberg. They have conceded 17 goals, 3.4 a game, which is the 2nd most in the division, and they score 1 a game, the 4th fewest. Eighty per cent of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 5th highest rate in the league.
Dortmund have lost only twice in their last ten, the latest being the midweek defeat in Norway. Before it they drew 2-2 with Bremen and won 1-0 at Stuttgart and 3-0 against Paderborn. They have conceded 4 goals in five games, 0.8 a game, the fewest in the league, and have kept clean sheets in 60% of their matches, the highest rate anywhere. At the other end they average 2.2 goals and put 6.2 shots on target a game, the 5th most.
Both sides also pick up bookings: Dortmund average 2.6 cards a game, the 2nd most, and Union 2.4, the 3rd most. Daniel Schlager referees.
FC Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Rönnow; Uduokhai, Van Den Bosch; Khedira, Jeong, Schäfer, Rothe, Haberer, Aebischer, Skarke, Imeri
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Anton, Schlotterbeck, Gadou; Svensson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Sabitzer; Beier, Nwaneri, Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy has had two or more shots in each of Dortmund's five league games, averaging 3 a match, and is 1.18 at bet365 to keep that going. He has also committed two or more fouls in four straight, at 2.38 with bet365.
Rani Khedira has committed a foul in five straight games, at 1.33 with midnite, and made a tackle in all five, averaging 2 a game.
Tom Rothe has made at least one tackle in each of Union's five games, at 3 a game, and is 1.05 at bet365.
Jobe Bellingham has a tackle in five straight, averaging 2.4, and Felix Nmecha has made two or more tackles in three in a row at 1.73.
We back Dortmund to win, and bet365 have them at 1.62. Union are 5.25 at bet365 and the draw is 4.5 at midnite.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin win | 5.25 (bet365) | 20% |
| Draw | 4.5 (midnite) | 23% |
| Dortmund win | 1.62 (bet365) | 57% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 59% |
Our projection is 1.97 goals for Dortmund against 1.08 for Union. 1-1 is the likeliest single scoreline at 11%, so a draw is in play, though we make Dortmund the more likely winners, with 1-2 and 0-2 next on the list.
Our prediction: Union Berlin 1-1 Borussia Dortmund.
On the player markets, Marcel Sabitzer's model chance of two or more shots on target is higher than the 17.00 price suggests, and Waldemar Anton to commit two or more fouls is 3.75. For Union, Leopold Querfeld to have a shot is 2.50.