Hamburger SV host VfB Stuttgart at the Volksparkstadion on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 2.30pm UK. Hamburg sit 12th and Stuttgart 11th in the Bundesliga, both on six points from five games. The difference is at the back: Hamburg have shipped 15 goals, Stuttgart nine, and that gap is why we lean towards the visitors.
Hamburg are 12th in the Bundesliga table with two wins and three defeats. Two of those losses were heavy: a 5-0 home loss to Mainz and a 5-0 defeat at RB Leipzig. They have since won back to back, beating Koln 2-1 and then winning 3-2 at Hoffenheim last Saturday. Their goals against average of 3 a game is the 4th most in the league, and they lead the division for fouls with 14.6 a game.
Stuttgart are 11th, level on points, and arrive in better shape. They won 2-0 at Paderborn on 10 October and then 3-0 at Slovan in the Champions League on Wednesday. Before that came a 1-0 home defeat to Dortmund. They are the 6th highest for shots on target at 6 a game and the 6th highest for corners at 6.2, and both teams have scored in 60% of their games.
Hamburg's shots on target average of 3.8 is the 3rd fewest in the division, while Stuttgart's shots on target figure sits in the top six. Hamburg's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 80% of the time, the 5th highest rate in the league.
Hamburger SV possible starting lineup:
Heuer Fernandes; Møller Wolfe, Bornauw, Omari, Capaldo; Sambi Lokonga, Adeline, Lemke; Vieira, Poulsen, Amoako
VfB Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Seimen; Assignon, Jeltsch, Hendriks, Vagnoman; Karazor, Stiller; Führich, Leweling, Demirovic; Undav
Ermedin Demirovic has had a shot in five straight games, averaging 2.6, and a shot on target in four in a row at 1.8 a game. He is 1.36 at bet365 for a shot on target.
Deniz Undav has committed two or more fouls in three straight games, averaging 2.3, and is 2.45 at midnite for 2+ fouls.
Nicolás Capaldo has made a tackle in five straight games, averaging 3.4, and has had a shot in three in a row. He is 1.57 at ladbrokes for a shot.
Fábio Vieira has made a tackle in each of his last four games. He is 1.50 at bet365 for a tackle.
Albert Sambi Lokonga has committed a foul in four straight games at two a game and is 1.30 at bet365 for one more.
We back Stuttgart, who are 1.80 with ladbrokes to win. Hamburg are 4.00 and the draw is 4.20, both at bet365. Our model makes this a goals game, with both teams to score at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburg win | 4.00 (bet365) | 27% |
| Draw | 4.20 (bet365) | 23% |
| Stuttgart win | 1.80 (ladbrokes) | 50% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | 68% |
We project Hamburg for 1.48 goals and Stuttgart for 2.03, and 1-1 is the likeliest single score, though we make Stuttgart much more likely to win than Hamburg, and a draw is in play. 1-2 is close behind it. Our prediction is Hamburg 1-1 Stuttgart.
Hamburg have kept no clean sheet this season and our model gives them a 13% chance of keeping one here, against 23% for Stuttgart. For something away from the result, Demirovic's shots-on-target run and the foul markets on Undav and Sambi Lokonga are the angles with form behind them.