Elversberg host FC Augsburg at the URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 14:30 UK. The Bundesliga's 9th and 6th-placed sides are separated by a single point, and Augsburg arrive having scored in every one of their last five league games.
Our model's goal projection has the two sides level at 1.69 each, which makes this one of the more evenly balanced fixtures on the weekend.
Elversberg sit 9th in the Bundesliga table on 7 points from five games, with two wins, a draw and two defeats. They come in on a two-match run without a goal: a 0-0 draw at Schalke was followed by a 1-0 loss at Union Berlin last Saturday. Before that came a 1-2 home defeat to Bayern and, earlier, two wins: a 3-2 home win over Leverkusen and a 4-3 win at Gladbach.
They have scored 8 and conceded 8, and their numbers per game are middling: 1.6 goals for and 1.6 against, with shots on target at 4 a game, the 4th fewest in the division. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games, the 6th highest rate.
FC Augsburg are 6th on 8 points, with two wins, two draws and a defeat, and the league's 5th most goals at 2.6 a game. Their last five, newest first, are a 2-2 home draw with Bayern, a 3-2 defeat at Bremen, a 2-2 draw with Leverkusen, a 4-1 win at Frankfurt and a 3-0 win over Schalke.
Every Augsburg game this season has ended with three or more goals, the highest over 2.5 rate in the league at 100%, and they have kept a clean sheet in 20% of games. They average 6.8 shots on target, the 3rd most. At the other end they commit the fewest fouls in the league, 7.6 a game.
Elversberg possible starting lineup:
Kristof; Sirch, Pinckert, Rohr; Günther, Keidel, Poręba, Petkov; Darvich, Zimmerschied; Futkeu
FC Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Dahmen; Brackelmann, Gouweleeuw, Matsima, Behrens; Massengo, Fellhauer; Seol, Rieder, Ibrahimovic; Ribeiro
Calvin Brackelmann has made two or more tackles in all five of Augsburg's games, averaging 2.8, the longest run of its kind in the Bundesliga, and bet365 price that at 1.29.
Łukasz Poręba has committed at least one foul in each of Elversberg's five matches, 1.6 a game, and midnite offer 1.40 on him to make it six.
Arijon Ibrahimovic has had a shot on target in three straight games, and Ladbrokes go 1.73 on a fourth. He has hit that mark in four of his last five.
Han-Noah Massengo has fouled in three in a row and our projections rank him the likeliest Augsburg player to do it again; bet365 are 1.57.
Maximilian Rohr is the model's pick for the bigger price: we rate him likelier to have a shot or commit a foul than the market does, with one or more fouls at 1.83 and two or more shots at 10.00.
Our model cannot separate the sides, giving each a 38% chance of winning and the draw 24%. Elversberg are 2.50 with bet365 to win, the draw is 3.90 at midnite and Augsburg are 2.62 at Coral. The interest is in goals: both teams to score is 1.40 at bet365, and we rate it a 67% chance.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Elversberg win | 2.50 (bet365) | 38% |
| Draw | 3.90 (midnite) | 24% |
| Augsburg win | 2.62 (Coral) | 38% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 66% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 10%, with 1-2 and 2-1 next at 8% each. A draw is in play, but the two sides are level on win probability, so either can take it. The model expects over 2.5 goals 66% of the time and sees only an 18% chance of a clean sheet for either team.
Statz prediction: Elversberg 1-1 FC Augsburg