Deportivo Alavés host Atlético Madrid at the Estadio de Mendizorroza on Saturday 10 October, kicking off at 15:15 UK, and the fixture pits the meanest defence in La Liga against one of its most productive attacks. Alavés have conceded 0.86 goals a game, the fewest in the division. Atlético arrive 2nd in the table and have scored 2.29 a game, the 3rd most.
It is a game that could easily be settled by one goal either way, and our model has the visitors ahead without making the home side an afterthought. The La Liga standings show the gap is five points, not a chasm.
Alavés are 6th on 11 points from seven games, with three wins, two draws and two defeats. They have scored 11 and let in just 6, and their goals record is better than the table position suggests: the 5th most scored in the league to go with the fewest conceded. They have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games, the 3rd highest rate in the division.
The recent run has been quieter. Alavés drew 0-0 away at Athletic Club last time out, after a 1-0 home defeat to Valencia and a 2-1 loss at Racing. Before that came a 5-2 win over Osasuna and a 1-0 win against Villarreal. They have scored in only one of their last four.
Atlético are 2nd on 16 points with five wins, one draw and one defeat, and a goal difference of plus nine. They have the 4th most shots on target in the league at 6.43 a game, and 86% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest rate in La Liga.
Their last five have been a mixed bag in the best sense. They lost 3-0 at Athletic Club and went down 2-1 to Liverpool in the Champions League, then won three in a row: 3-0 at Sociedad, 4-0 against Osasuna and a 2-1 victory over Real Madrid last Sunday. That is nine goals scored and one conceded across the three wins.
Deportivo Alavés possible starting lineup:
Sivera; Valentini, Tenaglia, Boyé, Otto; Ibáñez, Rebbach; Suárez, Pérez, Blanco; Martínez
Atlético Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Pubill, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo; Llorente, Cardoso; Simeone, Baena, Lee; Lookman
Nahuel Tenaglia has made at least one tackle in each of Alavés' seven games this season, averaging 1.6, and is 1.05 at bet365 to keep that run alive.
Lucas Boyé has been fouling and tackling in equal measure. He has committed two or more fouls in five straight games, averaging 2.8, and has made a tackle in each of his last six. Two or more fouls is 1.40 at bet365.
Alejandro Grimaldo has made at least one tackle in six straight games for Atlético at 2.3 a game, and has managed two or more shots in his last three, which is 2.62 at Ladbrokes.
Álex Baena has had a shot in five straight games and averages 2.8 a game. Kang-in Lee has a shot in four in a row at the same average, and is 1.22 at bet365 to make a tackle after doing so in each of his last five.
We back Atlético Madrid to win, and they are 1.80 at bet365. Alavés are 4.33 at Coral and the draw is 3.80 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Alavés to win | 4.33 (Coral) | 26% |
| Draw | 3.80 (bet365) | 27% |
| Atlético Madrid to win | 1.80 (bet365) | 47% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 51% |
Our prediction is Alavés 1-1 Atlético Madrid, as the likeliest single score at 12.7%, though we make Atlético the likelier side to win and a draw is in play. The projection has Atlético on 1.59 goals to Alavés' 1.12, and both teams scoring comes out at 55%. Over 2.5 goals is close to a coin flip at 51%.
The player markets are where the interest lies. Ángel Pérez has had at least one shot in each of his last five and Antonio Blanco has made two or more tackles in each of his last five, averaging three, while Kang-in Lee's tackle run sits at five straight.