FC Barcelona host Getafe at Spotify Camp Nou on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 5:30pm UK. The leaders of La Liga have won all seven league games and scored 31 goals along the way. Getafe sit 11th and have scored only four.
The mismatch is clearest in front of goal. Barcelona average 4.43 goals a game, the most in the division, while Getafe's 0.57 is the 3rd fewest. Getafe do defend, though: their goals-against figure is the 3rd fewest in the league, the same as Barcelona's.
Barcelona are 1st on 21 points from seven games, with 31 scored and seven conceded. They have won nine of their last ten in all competitions, the only defeat coming earlier in that run. The latest result was a 3-1 win at Sevilla, after a 7-2 thrashing of Racing and a 4-2 win at Levante. Before that came a 5-1 Champions League win over Feyenoord and a 5-0 win at Valencia.
At home Barcelona lead the league for shots on target at 8.29 a game and for corners at 7.43. They also commit few fouls, the 3rd fewest at 9.71 a game, and collect the 2nd fewest cards. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of their games, the highest rate in La Liga.
Getafe are 11th on 8 points, with two wins, two draws and three defeats. They arrive on the back of a 1-0 win over Málaga, which followed a 1-0 loss at Betis. Before that they drew 1-1 with Deportivo and 1-1 with Celta, and lost 1-0 at Osasuna. Every one of those five games was decided by a single goal or ended level.
On the road Getafe commit the 2nd most fouls in the league at 14.71 a game and pick up the most cards at 3.86. Only 14% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the lowest rate in the division.
FC Barcelona possible starting lineup:
Joan García; Cancelo, Cubarsí, Eric García, Gerard Martín; Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Fermín López, Adeyemi
Getafe possible starting lineup:
Soria; Djené, Gudelj, Romero, Mojica; Mario Martín, Terrats, Valou; Azón, Ünal
Lamine Yamal has had at least three shots in six straight games, averaging six a game, the longest run of its kind in La Liga. He has also had a shot on target in each of those six games, and that market is 1.13 at bet365.
Raphinha has hit the target in seven straight league games at 2.3 a game, the best run in the division, and has had two or more shots in each. A shot on target is 1.11 at bet365.
Ramón Terrats is Getafe's most reliable shooter. He has had two or more shots in six straight games, averaging 2.8, and 2+ shots is 2.50 at Ladbrokes. A single shot is 1.29 at bet365, and he has managed at least one in each of his last five.
Enes Ünal looks a good fit for the fouls market given Getafe's record on the road. Two or more fouls is 2.20, and one or more is 1.25.
Rodri has made a tackle in five straight games, averaging 2.4. A tackle is 1.05 at bet365.
We back Barcelona to win, and Ladbrokes make them 1.09 to do it. The player markets offer more interest than the result.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona win | 1.09 (Ladbrokes) | 83% |
| Draw | 12.00 (bet365) | 12% |
| Getafe win | 26.00 (BoyleSports) | 5% |
| Both teams to score | 2.30 (BoyleSports) | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.07 (bet365) | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.25 (bet365) | 66% |
Our projection is 2.84 goals for Barcelona against 0.58 for Getafe. We predict a 2-0 home win, the most likely single score at 13%, with 3-0 and 1-0 behind it. Barcelona keep a clean sheet in 56% of our simulations.
Barcelona are projected 22.27 shots, 8.70 on target and 7.25 corners. Getafe are projected 13.82 fouls and 2.72 yellow cards, which is why Ünal and the other Getafe foul markets stand out.