Real Madrid host Villarreal at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 20:00 UK, and the numbers say goals. Madrid have the highest over 2.5 goals rate in La Liga at home, and Villarreal share that same top mark away from it, so the Bernabéu is set for a busy night in front of goal.
Madrid are 4th on 15 points and arrive on the back of a 2-1 defeat at Atlético. Villarreal sit 9th on 8 points, but a 3-1 win over Levante has them heading to the capital in better spirits.
Real Madrid have won five of their seven league games and lost two, scoring 18 and conceding 8. Their last ten read W W W W W L W W W L from oldest to newest, so the two defeats have both come in the last few weeks: Atlético 2-1 Real Madrid on 20 September and Betis 1-0 Real Madrid on 4 September. In between came a 3-2 win at Elche, a 4-1 home win over Rayo and a 2-1 Champions League victory over Inter.
At home they have scored 2.57 goals a game, the 2nd most in the league, and put 7.57 shots on target a game, also the 2nd most. They commit the fewest fouls in La Liga, 8.43 a game, which you can track on their fouls board. 71% of their home games have seen both teams score.
Villarreal have won two, drawn two and lost three, scoring 13 and conceding 12. Their latest run is encouraging, with wins at Málaga (3-1) and at home to Levante (3-1), after defeats to Betis, Dortmund and Deportivo.
On the road they score 1.86 a game, the 4th most, and have shots on target at 6.57 a game, the 3rd most. They have not kept a clean sheet away from home, and 86% of their away games have seen both teams score, the 2nd highest rate in the division.
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Dumfries, Rüdiger, Konaté, Carreras; Tchouaméni, Bernardo Silva, Bellingham; Güler, Mbappé, Vinicius Junior
Villarreal possible starting lineup:
Gulácsi; Mouriño, Navarro, Veiga, Cardona; Comesaña, Gueye; Pépé, Pérez, Moleiro
Kylian Mbappé has had a shot in seven straight league games, averaging 5.9 a game over the run. He also has a tackle in three in a row.
Vinicius Junior has had two or more shots in six straight games, averaging 3.5, and is 1.29 at bet365 for a shot on target. He has hit the target in four of his last five.
Nicolas Pépé has had at least two shots in each of his last five games, with 4, 4, 2, 2 and 5, and is 1.40 at bet365 to do it again.
Alberto Moleiro has had two or more shots in four straight games and averages 2.5 a game across the run. He is 2.05 at Ladbrokes to make it five.
Ibrahima Konaté has committed at least one foul in five straight games and is 1.22 at bet365 to extend it, having done so in each of his last five.
We back Real Madrid, available at 1.40 with Coral. Our model gives them a 65% chance of winning, with the draw at 19% and a Villarreal win at 16%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to win | 1.40 (Coral) | 65% |
| Draw | 6.00 (bet365) | 19% |
| Villarreal to win | 7.00 (Midnite) | 16% |
| Both teams to score | 1.48 (Ladbrokes) | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | 70% |
We project Real Madrid 2.45 goals to Villarreal's 1.18, and our prediction is a 2-1 home win. A draw is in play, with 1-1 the second likeliest scoreline, though the model makes Madrid clear favourites.
Villarreal have scored in every away game, and Madrid have a 14% clean sheet rate at home, which supports both teams to score.