Real Betis host FC Barcelona at Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 5:30pm UK. It is 3rd against 1st in La Liga, and Barcelona arrive with eight wins from eight, 34 goals scored and just seven conceded.
Betis are no pushovers. They sit two places behind on 19 points, have lost once all season and have won eight of their last ten in all competitions. Something close to a goal-fest looks likely, since our model gives this meeting a 74% chance of more than 2.5 goals.
Barcelona have been relentless. Their last ten games, across all competitions, are all wins, and the latest was a 4-1 victory at Galatasaray in the Champions League on Tuesday. Before that came a 3-0 home win over Getafe, a 3-1 win at Sevilla and a 7-2 thrashing of Racing. They average 4.25 goals a game, the most in La Liga, and top the division for shots on target at 8.25 a game. They also lead for corners, with 7.63 a game.
Betis have their own momentum. They beat Porto 3-2 in the Champions League on Wednesday, three days after a 5-2 home win over Osasuna. Their only blemish in the last five was a 1-1 draw at Deportivo, which came after wins over Villarreal and Getafe.
Betis average 1.75 goals a game, the 4th most in the league, and 6.5 shots on target, the 3rd most. At the back they have kept a clean sheet in half their games, the 2nd highest rate in the division, a mark Barcelona match. Barcelona have conceded 0.88 a game, the 3rd fewest.
Real Betis possible starting lineup:
Valles; BellerÃn, Llorente, Natan, Fran GarcÃa; Roca, Fornals; Riquelme, Isco, Ezzalzouli; Cucho Hernández
FC Barcelona possible starting lineup:
Joan GarcÃa; Koundé, Eric GarcÃa, Gerard MartÃn, Espart; Rodri, Gavi; Gordon, Olmo, Yamal; Gabriel Jesus
Lamine Yamal has had 3+ shots in seven straight games and averages six a game. That is the longest such run in La Liga, and 3+ shots is 1.17 at bet365.
Raphinha has had a shot on target in each of his last seven games, averaging 2.3 a game, and 1+ on target is 1.15 at Coral. He has also had 2+ shots in all seven.
Anthony Gordon has hit a shot on target in each of his last five, with 4, 2, 4, 2 and 1 in those games, and he is 1.17 at bet365 to do it again.
Nelson Deossa has had at least one shot in eight straight games, averaging 2.1, and that is 1.15 at Coral.
Abde Ezzalzouli has put a shot on target in four straight games, and 1+ on target is 1.70 at Ladbrokes.
We back Barcelona to win, and they are 1.44 at Coral. Betis are 6.5 at Midnite and the draw is 5.75 at bet365. Both teams to score is 1.40 at bet365, and we have it at 70%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Betis win | 6.50 (Midnite) | 21% |
| Draw | 5.75 (bet365) | 20% |
| Barcelona win | 1.44 (Coral) | 59% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 (bet365) | 70% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.07 (bet365) | 90% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.25 (bet365) | 74% |
Our prediction is Real Betis 1-2 FC Barcelona. The model has Barcelona on 2.41 goals and Betis on 1.42, and 1-3 is the next likeliest win for the visitors after 1-2. A draw is in play, since 1-1 is the second most likely scoreline.
The player markets carry plenty of interest. Barcelona's attackers have long shot runs, and Betis have a few of their own. Fran GarcÃa has made 2+ tackles in each of his last five games, with 5, 5, 4, 4 and 4, and 2+ tackles is 1.40 at bet365. Pablo Fornals has committed a foul in each of his last five, and 1+ fouls is also 1.40.
A bet builder of Gordon 1+ shots on target, Olmo 2+ shots, Fran GarcÃa 2+ tackles and Fornals 1+ fouls comes to 3.12. Each leg has been hit in all of the player's last five games.