Deportivo La Coruña welcome Levante to the Estadio Abanca-Riazor on Friday 16 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in a La Liga game where one side keeps finding goals at both ends and the other keeps conceding them. Deportivo are 8th, Levante 17th, and the home side's matches have almost always seen both teams score.
Levante arrive from a 3-3 draw with Sevilla on Monday, a result that fits the pattern of a team that scores freely but is leaking at the back. They have conceded 15 in seven games.
Deportivo La Coruña sit 8th on 10 points from eight games, with two wins, four draws and two defeats, and a goal difference of +1 (12 scored, 11 conceded). They come into this one on the back of a 3-2 defeat at Sociedad on Sunday. Before that came a 1-1 draw with Betis and a 0-1 home loss to Sevilla, so they have taken one point from their last three games. Their best recent result was a 3-2 win at Villarreal.
Both teams have scored in 88% of Deportivo's games and they have not kept a clean sheet all season. They concede 1.38 a game and score 1.5.
Levante are 17th on 6 points from seven games: one win, three draws, three defeats, 11 scored and 15 conceded. Their one win was a 5-2 victory over Betis, and since then they have drawn 0-0 at Málaga, lost 2-4 to Barcelona and 1-3 at Villarreal, then drawn 3-3 with Sevilla. They score 1.57 a game and concede 2.14, and 71% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals.
Levante are a disciplined side, averaging 1.14 cards and 9.57 fouls a game. Our model projects 13.86 shots for Depor against 11.32 for Levante.
Deportivo La Coruña possible starting lineup:
Román; Navarro, Giménez, Ede, Quagliata; Villares, Soriano; Cruz, Yeremay Hernández, Mella; Nsongo Tonfack
Levante possible starting lineup:
Ryan; Toljan, Dela, Ndukwe, Sánchez; Rey, García, Olasagasti; Brugué, Romero, Musuayi
Iván Romero is the most reliable Levante name. He has had a shot in seven straight games, averaging 2.6 a match, and a shot on target in five in a row, which is 1.83 at bet365 for a sixth.
Roger Brugué has had at least one shot in six consecutive games, averaging 2.8 a game, and the same is true of Deportivo's Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack, who is on six straight at 2.7 a game.
In the tackle market, Ximo Navarro has made two or more tackles in four straight games, averaging 3.3, and two or more tackles is 1.62 at bet365. Levante's Manu Sánchez has made three or more in four straight at 6.5 a game, also 1.62 at bet365.
We back Deportivo La Coruña at 2.10 with bet365. Levante and the draw are both 3.50, and our model has the home side at 44% to win, the draw at 28% and Levante at 29%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo win | 2.10 (bet365) | 44% |
| Draw | 3.50 (bet365) | 28% |
| Levante win | 3.50 (bet365) | 29% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 (bet365) | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 48% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, with a goals projection of 1.46 for Deportivo and 1.14 for Levante. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 13%, though we make Deportivo more likely to win than Levante, and a draw is in play. 1-0 to the hosts is next at 10%, followed by 2-1 at 9%.
Deportivo's near-constant both-teams-to-score record and Levante's open defence point to goals at both ends, and the model puts BTTS at 53%.