Updated 23 October 2026.
Rayo Vallecano welcome Elche to the Estadio de Vallecas on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 1pm UK, in a La Liga game between two sides in the lower half of the table. Rayo sit 14th on 9 points from 8 games, while Elche are 18th on 7 points from 9. Both have conceded 17 goals, and both come in on a run of draws.
Rayo's matches have been open. They have the highest both-teams-to-score rate in the division at 89%, and our model gives this one a 55% chance of seeing both sides find the net.
Rayo have gone three games without a win. They drew 1-1 at Getafe on Monday in the latest of those, goalless with Athletic Club at Vallecas before that, and 1-1 away to Osasuna the game before. Their last win was 2-1 over Espanyol in mid-September, three days after a 4-1 defeat at Real Madrid.
Across the season Rayo average 1.33 goals a game, the 9th fewest in the league, and concede 1.89, the 7th most. Their shots on target are the 8th most in La Liga at 4.63 a game, and they win 5.63 corners a game, the 7th most.
Elche are unbeaten in three. They held Villarreal to a goalless draw last Saturday and did the same to Celta at home the Sunday before. Before that came a 3-1 win at Espanyol, their only victory of the season so far.
Elche score 1.22 a game, the 8th fewest, and concede the same 1.89 as Rayo. They have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their matches, the 9th highest rate in the division, while Rayo's 11% is the 6th lowest. Elche also commit the 6th most fouls in La Liga at 13.44 a game.
Rayo Vallecano possible starting lineup:
Audero; Balliu, Lejeune, Sadick, Pedrosa; Ciss, Unai López; Tsitaishvili, Isi Palazón, Álvaro García; Zurawski
Elche possible starting lineup:
Dituro; Sangaré, Chust, Redondo, Revivo; Morcillo, Villar; Valera, Lemar, Cepeda; Fer Niño
Unai López has made at least one tackle in eight straight games, averaging 2.1, and has had a shot in each of his last five, at 1.30 with bet365. His midfield partner Pathé Ciss has a tackle in seven in a row.
Winger Álvaro García has had a shot in each of his last five games, averaging 2.2 a match, and is 1.08 with bet365 to have another.
Centre-back Florian Lejeune has managed two or more shots in four straight and is 1.73 at Midnite to do it again.
For Elche, Buba Sangaré has made a tackle in eight consecutive games, averaging 1.8 a match, and Fer Niño has had a shot in four in a row, priced at 1.11 with bet365.
We make Rayo Vallecano the favourites, and the bookmakers agree: 1.80 with bet365 for the home side, 3.80 with Coral for the draw and 4.33 with bet365 for Elche.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano win | 1.80 (bet365) | 50% |
| Draw | 3.80 (Coral) | 26% |
| Elche win | 4.33 (bet365) | 24% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | 77% |
Our model projects 1.69 goals for Rayo and 1.09 for Elche, and 1-1 is the likeliest single scoreline at 12%. A draw is in play, though we make Rayo the more likely winner at 50%, with 2-1 and 1-0 the next likeliest scores. Over 1.5 goals is 1.29 with bet365, and we give it a 77% chance.
Our prediction: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Elche.
Kick-off is at 1pm UK on Saturday 24 October 2026 at the Estadio de Vallecas.
We predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest scoreline, though our model makes Rayo Vallecano the more likely winner at 50% against 24% for Elche.
Rayo Vallecano are favourites at 1.80 with bet365. Elche are 4.33 and the draw is 3.80.
Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, and it is 1.80 with bet365. Rayo have the highest both-teams-to-score rate in La Liga at 89%.
Rayo Vallecano are 14th with 9 points from 8 games. Elche are 18th with 7 points from 9.
Unai López has had a shot in five straight games, and Florian Lejeune has had two or more shots in each of his last four.
Rayo: Audero; Balliu, Lejeune, Sadick, Pedrosa; Ciss, Unai López; Tsitaishvili, Isi Palazón, Álvaro García; Zurawski. Elche: Dituro; Sangaré, Chust, Redondo, Revivo; Morcillo, Villar; Valera, Lemar, Cepeda; Fer Niño.