Updated 9 October 2026.
Blackburn Rovers host Cardiff City at Ewood Park on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 3pm UK, and the table says this is a game between two sides who need points. Blackburn are 16th on 9 points from eight games, while Cardiff sit 21st on 7, three games from the drop zone's edge and still looking for a second league win.
The goals trend points one way. Blackburn have gone over 2.5 in their matches more than any other side in the division, and Cardiff are the league's top team for shots on target and corners. Two defences that concede 1.5 a game each meet two sides who keep creating.
Blackburn's last five reads D, W, L, L, D going back from the most recent. They drew 2-2 at Portsmouth last time out in a game with four goals, and before that beat Millwall 3-1 at Ewood Park in their only recent win. Defeats to Sheffield United and Preston by the same 2-1 scoreline sit either side of a goalless draw at Lincoln. Both teams have scored in 88% of their games, the 3rd highest rate in the Championship.
Blackburn also lead the league for cards per game and are the 7th most prolific side for corners. Their shots on target sit mid-table at 4.13 a game, so the threat comes from volume across the pitch rather than one outlet.
Cardiff come in off a 3-1 home win over Charlton, which snapped a run of four games without a win. Before it they lost 1-0 at Bolton, drew 1-1 with Stoke, lost 2-0 at Portsmouth and lost 2-1 at QPR. They have not kept a clean sheet all season, yet no side in the division gets more shots on target than their 6.63 a game, and they also lead for corners at 7.88.
Blackburn Rovers possible starting lineup:
Tóth; Alebiosu, McLoughlin, Atcheson, Pickering; Morsy, Montgomery, Morishita; Cantwell, Afolayan, Gudjohnsen
Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Trott; Ng, Osho, Lawlor, Bagan; Robertson, Colwill; Tanner, Moylan, Willock; Ashford
Todd Cantwell has had a shot on target in seven straight games, the longest such run in the Championship, and is 1.53 at Ladbrokes to make it eight. He also averages two shots a game across that stretch.
Sam Morsy has had a shot in six straight and is 1.40 at Ladbrokes to extend it. Kristi Montgomery has made a tackle in all eight league games, at 2.5 a match.
For Cardiff, Jack Moylan has had a shot in all eight games at 3.8 a match and a shot on target in four in a row, 1.61 at Ladbrokes for the next. Alex Robertson has also shot in all eight, 1.44 at bet365 to do it again, and Joel Colwill has managed two or more shots in four straight, 1.70 at Ladbrokes.
We make this a genuine toss-up with a small lean to the hosts: Blackburn win in 38% of our simulations, Cardiff in 35% and the draw in 27%. Blackburn are 2.65 at bet365, the draw is 3.70 at Ladbrokes and Cardiff are 2.45 at Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn Rovers win | 2.65 (bet365) | 38% |
| Draw | 3.70 (Ladbrokes) | 27% |
| Cardiff City win | 2.45 (Ladbrokes) | 35% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 54% |
Our model projects 1.45 goals for Blackburn and 1.39 for Cardiff, and neither side keeps a clean sheet in more than a quarter of simulations. We predict 1-1, the likeliest single score at 13%, so a draw is in play, though we make Blackburn slightly more likely to win than Cardiff.
The player markets carry more interest than the result. Cantwell has had a shot on target in seven straight, and Moylan and Robertson have shot in every game Cardiff have played.
Prediction: Blackburn Rovers 1-1 Cardiff City
Blackburn Rovers host Cardiff City at Ewood Park on Saturday 10 October 2026, with kick-off at 3pm UK.
Our model predicts a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 13%, though it makes Blackburn slightly more likely to win (38%) than Cardiff (35%).
Cardiff are the slightly shorter price at 2.45 with Ladbrokes against 2.65 for Blackburn at bet365, while our model gives Blackburn a 38% chance to Cardiff's 35%.
Both teams to score is 1.53 at bet365 and we give it a 58% chance. Both teams have scored in 88% of Blackburn's games this season and Cardiff have not kept a clean sheet.
Todd Cantwell has had a shot on target in seven straight games, the longest such run in the Championship, and is 1.53 at Ladbrokes to make it eight.
Blackburn are 16th with 9 points from eight games and Cardiff are 21st with 7 points.
Blackburn: Tóth; Alebiosu, McLoughlin, Atcheson, Pickering; Morsy, Montgomery, Morishita; Cantwell, Afolayan, Gudjohnsen. Cardiff: Trott; Ng, Osho, Lawlor, Bagan; Robertson, Colwill; Tanner, Moylan, Willock; Ashford.