Bristol City welcome Blackburn Rovers to Ashton Gate Stadium on Tuesday 13 October, with kick-off at 7:45pm UK time. Bristol City sit 10th in the Championship table on 14 points from nine games, and Blackburn are 13th on 12. Two sides this close should make for a close night, and Blackburn have been the Championship's most reliable source of goals at both ends.
Blackburn have seen both teams score in 89% of their games, the highest rate in the division, and the same 89% have gone over 2.5 goals, also the highest. Bristol City's games have been more measured, with over 2.5 goals in 56% of them.
Bristol City drew 1-1 at Charlton on Saturday. Before that they beat Watford 1-0 at home, lost 1-0 at home to Lincoln and went down 4-1 at Southampton. They have scored 12 and conceded 13 this season, and they have averaged 4.44 shots on target, the 11th most in the league.
Blackburn Rovers beat Cardiff 2-1 at home on Saturday, and before that drew 2-2 at Portsmouth and beat Millwall 3-1 at Ewood Park. They lost 2-1 to Sheffield United and by the same score at Preston. Their 14 goals are two more than Bristol City's, but they have also let in 13.
Blackburn also stand out for cards and set pieces: 2.78 cards a game, the most in the Championship, and 6.56 corners a game, the 3rd most. Referee David Webb has averaged 3.33 yellow cards in his three games this season, so bookings could come easily.
Bristol City possible starting lineup:
Tickle; Tanner, Atkinson, McNally, Cardines; Randell, De Keersmaecker, Knight; Hirakawa, Twine, Ballard
Blackburn Rovers possible starting lineup:
Tóth; Alebiosu, McLoughlin, Carter, Pickering; Morsy, Montgomery, Morishita; Afolayan, Cantwell, Gudjohnsen
Todd Cantwell has had a shot in eight straight games and a shot on target in each of the same eight. His shot on target run is the 2nd longest in the Championship, and he is 1.91 at Ladbrokes for another.
Kristi Montgomery has made at least one tackle in all nine of Blackburn's games, averaging 2.7 a game. Oladapo Afolayan has put a shot on target in five in a row and is 1.95 at Ladbrokes.
For Bristol City, Lorent Tolaj has had three or more shots in five straight, averaging 4 a game, and he is 1.50 at bet365 to do it again. Centre-back Rob Dickie has had a shot in six straight, is 1.80 at bet365 for another, and is ranked a likelier shooter by our model than the prices suggest.
We back Bristol City at 2.00 with Ladbrokes, with the model giving them a 46% chance of winning against 28% for the draw and 26% for Blackburn Rovers.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 2.00 (Ladbrokes) | 46% |
| Draw | 3.50 (Ladbrokes) | 28% |
| Blackburn Rovers win | 3.90 (bet365) | 26% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 (bet365) | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 44% |
We predict Bristol City 1-1 Blackburn Rovers, though we make Bristol City the more likely winners. A draw is in play, with 1-0 to the hosts and a 0-0 not far behind in our scorelines. Our projection has Bristol City on 1.44 goals and Blackburn Rovers on 1.01, with the hosts to keep a clean sheet 36% of the time.