Stoke City host Middlesbrough at the Bet365 Stadium on Tuesday 13 October, with kick-off at 8pm UK. It is 4th against 2nd in the Championship table, and only two points separate them, 18 for Middlesbrough and 16 for Stoke.
Both teams score freely. Stoke have scored in nearly eight of every ten league games, Middlesbrough have the 3rd most goals per game in the division, and over 2.5 goals has landed in most of their matches. Expect an open evening in Staffordshire.
Stoke come into this on the back of three straight league wins. They won 2-1 at Bolton on Saturday, beat Sheff Utd 2-1 at home and took a 2-1 win at Watford. Before that came a 1-1 draw at Cardiff and a 4-0 home win over Charlton. Across the season they have scored 15 and conceded 13 in nine games, and both teams have scored in 78% of their matches, the 4th highest rate in the division. They also give away the most fouls per game in the league, at 14.67, and collect the 2nd most cards.
Middlesbrough's recent run is steadier than it is spectacular. They won 1-0 against Wolves on Saturday and before that drew 2-2 at Birmingham and 2-2 with Millwall, either side of a 4-3 win over Norwich. Their only recent defeat was a 3-0 loss at Palace in the Carabao Cup. With 17 goals scored and 12 conceded, they are 5th for shots on target and the 5.22 they average per game is a good sign of how much they create. They collect the 3rd fewest cards in the league, at 1.22 a game.
Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Johansson; Johnson, Wilmot, Graham, Tchamadeu; Soumaré, Galbraith, Bocat; McGlynn, Devenny, Cissé
Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Vitek; Brittain, Malanda, Phillips, Borges; Morris, Berhalter; Cozier-Duberry, McGree, Conway; Lankshear
Callum Brittain has made at least one tackle in all nine of Middlesbrough's games this season, averaging 2.6 per game, and is 1.14 at bet365 to keep that run going. In midfield, Aidan Morris has made a tackle in eight straight games, averaging 3.5, and has had a shot in four of his last five.
Up front, Will Lankshear has had two or more shots in five consecutive games and averages 3.4 per game.
For Stoke, Ethan Galbraith has made a tackle in five straight and is 1.22 at bet365. Lamine Cissé has had a shot in each of his last four, averaging 2.0, and is 1.09 at Ladbrokes.
We back Middlesbrough, who are 1.91 at Ladbrokes. Our model gives them a 50% chance of winning, with Stoke on 25% and the draw on 26%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke City win | 3.75 (bet365) | 25% |
| Draw | 3.90 (Coral) | 26% |
| Middlesbrough win | 1.91 (Ladbrokes) | 50% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (Midnite) | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 (bet365) | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | 54% |
Our model projects 1.70 goals for Middlesbrough against 1.14 for Stoke. We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 12%, though we make Middlesbrough the likelier winner, and 1-2 follows at 10%.
On the player markets, the model rates Sebastian Berhalter a likelier shot-on-target candidate than the market suggests, at 2.50, and Adilson Malanda is 2.63 for a shot. Ashley Phillips is 5.00 for two or more fouls.