Queens Park Rangers host Derby County at MATRADE Loftus Road on Wednesday 14 October, kick-off 19:45 UK. It pits 6th against 23rd in the Championship table: QPR have 14 points from nine games, while Derby County have 6 and have lost five of their nine.
The hosts have been hard to beat without winning much lately. Derby arrive having scored just 8 goals all season.
Queens Park Rangers have won 3, drawn 5 and lost 1, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Their last four outings have all been draws or better: 1-1 at West Ham on 9 October, 2-2 with Preston at home, 1-1 at WBA and a goalless draw at Charlton. That run follows a 1-0 home defeat to Middlesbrough on 5 September.
QPR's strength is at the back. They concede 0.89 goals a game, the 2nd fewest in the division, and have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their matches. Going forward they are busier than the goals suggest, with 5.11 shots on target a game, the 6th most, and 6.22 corners, the 7th most.
Derby County sit second from bottom. They have scored 0.89 a game, the 5th fewest, and let in 1.67, the 6th most. Their last five were a 3-0 defeat at West Ham, a 1-0 loss to WBA and a 2-1 home loss to Birmingham, followed by 1-1 draws at Burnley and at home to Wrexham.
Derby are also one of the more foul-prone sides, averaging 12.56 a game, the 3rd most, and 2.33 cards, the 5th most. QPR commit 9 fouls a game, the 2nd fewest.
Queens Park Rangers possible starting lineup:
Charles; Adamson, Dunne, Edwards, Clarke-Salter, Kemper; Poku, Kamara, Madsen, Kolli; Kone
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Vickers; Ward, Hedges, Sanderson, Langås; Ozoh, Mowatt, Clark, Fuseini, Szmodics; Morris
Kwame Poku has had at least one shot in six straight games and averages 3.5 a game. He is 1.03 at bet365 to make it seven, so the interest is in the higher lines.
Glen Kamara has committed a foul in seven straight games, 1.25 at Ladbrokes, and he has reached that mark in all of his last five. Jake Clarke-Salter has fouled in four in a row and is 2.05 at Ladbrokes.
For Derby, Sammie Szmodics is the one to follow. He has had three or more shots in four straight games and averages 4.3, a run that ranks 3rd in the Championship, and he is 2.9 at Ladbrokes. David Ozoh has made at least one tackle in each of his last five at 3.2 a game.
We back Queens Park Rangers, who are 1.73 at midnite. Derby County are 4.6 at Coral and the draw is 3.9 at Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| QPR win | 1.73 (midnite) | 48% |
| Draw | 3.90 (Ladbrokes) | 27% |
| Derby win | 4.60 (Coral) | 26% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (Ladbrokes) | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 50% |
Our projection is 1.58 goals for QPR and 1.10 for Derby. We predict 1-1 as the likeliest score at 13%, though we make QPR the likelier winner, and a draw is in play. A 1-0 or 2-1 home win are the next most likely results.
Both teams to score is 54% and over 2.5 goals 50%, so the goals market is level. QPR keep a clean sheet in 33% of our simulations, Derby in 21%. The player markets look the better route, with Poku's shot run, Kamara's foul run and Szmodics' shot volume all backed by recent games.