Birmingham City host Queens Park Rangers at St. Andrew's Stadium on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 3pm UK, and the two sides could hardly be closer. Both are on 17 points from ten games, with Birmingham 4th and QPR 5th, and both have lost just once all season. What separates them is how they get there: Birmingham score, QPR keep the door shut and share the points.
Birmingham come in on a run of three wins from their last four, and the latest was the loudest: a 4-0 win over Preston on Tuesday. Before that they won 1-0 at WBA, and the only blemish in that stretch was a 2-2 draw with M'Boro. They sit 4th in the Championship table with 17 goals scored and 11 conceded. Per game that is 1.7 scored, the 5th most in the division, and they have kept a clean sheet in 30% of matches, the 4th highest. They also take 4.8 shots on target a game, the 8th most, and win 6.3 corners, the 6th most.
QPR are the draw specialists. Five of their ten games have ended level, and they drew four in a row before beating Derby 4-1 at home on Tuesday. That run took in a 1-1 at West Ham, a 2-2 with Preston, a 1-1 at WBA and a goalless draw at Charlton. Their defence is the reason: they concede 0.9 a game, the 2nd fewest in the league. They are also a tidy side, committing 9.1 fouls a game, the 2nd fewest, though they still land 5.3 shots on target a game, the 4th most.
Both sides' matches have seen both teams score 70% of the time, the 7th highest rate in the league, and Birmingham's over 2.5 goals rate of 70% is the 5th highest.
Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Beadle; Osayi-Samuel, Neumann, Klarer, Cochrane; Iwata, SolÃs; Vicente, Millar, Priske; Stansfield
Queens Park Rangers possible starting lineup:
Charles; Adamson, Dunne, Clarke-Salter, Kemper; Kamara, Madsen; Poku, Vale, Kolli; Edwards
Jay Stansfield is the headline name. He has had two or more shots in eight straight games, averaging 2.6 a game, and is 1.33 at Coral to make it nine.
Tomoki Iwata has had at least one shot in seven in a row and is 1.40 at Coral. His fouls run is shorter at five games, but it is there too.
Kwame Poku is QPR's most reliable shooter, with a shot in each of his last seven and 3.1 a game. He is 1.13 at bet365.
Glen Kamara has committed a foul in eight straight games and is 1.20 at Midnite.
On the model's side, Harvey Vale is the likeliest QPR player to have two shots, and 2+ shots is 1.91. He has also made a tackle in eight straight games.
We back Birmingham to win, available at 2.05 with Ladbrokes. Our model gives the hosts 48% to win, with a draw at 27% and QPR at 24%. The draw is at 3.50 with bet365 and QPR are 3.60.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham City win | 2.05 (Ladbrokes) | 48% |
| Draw | 3.50 (bet365) | 27% |
| Queens Park Rangers win | 3.60 (bet365) | 24% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 (bet365) | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | 75% |
1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Birmingham more likely to win than QPR, and a draw is in play given how many of these sides' games finish level. We expect Birmingham to carry more of the attacking threat, with 1.57 goals projected for them against 1.05 for QPR, and 15 shots to QPR's 10.
Our prediction: Birmingham City 1-1 Queens Park Rangers.