Bristol City host Sheffield United at Ashton Gate Stadium on Saturday 17 October, kick-off 3pm UK, with the Championship's 12th-placed side meeting the 15th. Both clubs have lost their most recent league game, and there is very little between them on our projection.
The Championship table has Bristol City on 14 points from 10 games and Sheffield United on 12. A win for either side would be felt quickly in a congested middle of the division.
Bristol City have won four, drawn two and lost four of their ten. They lost 0-1 to Blackburn on Tuesday and drew 1-1 at Charlton three days before that. Before the Charlton game came a 1-0 home win over Watford, and a 4-1 defeat at Southampton sits further back. They have scored 12 and conceded 14, and they have kept a clean sheet in just one game in ten, the 7th lowest rate in the division.
Sheffield United come in off a 3-2 defeat at Portsmouth on Wednesday, only four days after a 3-0 home win over Lincoln. They have won three, drawn three and lost four. They have scored 14 and conceded 14.
The Blades' defensive record travels better than the results suggest: they have kept a clean sheet in 30% of games, the 4th highest rate in the league. At the other end, their shots on target average of 3.4 per game is the 5th fewest, and they win the fewest corners in the Championship at 3.1 a game. Bristol City win 5.7 corners a game, the 7th most, and put 4.7 shots on target per game, the 9th most.
Bristol City possible starting lineup:
Tickle; Tanner, Atkinson, Eissat, Cardines; Randell, De Keersmaecker, Knight; Hirakawa, Twine, Ballard
Sheffield United possible starting lineup:
Cooper; Choudhury, Tanganga, Kitching, McCallum; Rothwell, Peck, Chong; Brereton DÃaz, Bamford, Cannon
Dominic Ballard has had at least one shot in seven straight games and averages 2.7 per game. A shot from him is 1.03 at Midnite.
Yu Hirakawa has also been shooting regularly, with a shot in six consecutive games at 2.3 a game. He is 1.14 at bet365 to make it seven.
Jason Knight has committed a foul in nine straight games, 1.7 per game on average, and that run ranks 2nd in the Championship. He is 1.36 at midnite to extend it.
On the Sheffield United side, Patrick Bamford has fouled in five straight games and is 1.30 at midnite to do so again. Hamza Choudhury is on a seven-game run of at least one tackle, averaging 2.4, and has also fouled in each of his last five, priced at 1.40 at midnite.
We back Bristol City to win at 2.10 with Coral. The model gives them a 40% chance of victory, against 27% for the draw and 32% for Sheffield United, and has them scoring 1.46 goals to the visitors' 1.28.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 2.10 (Coral) | 40% |
| Draw | 3.60 (Ladbrokes) | 27% |
| Sheffield United win | 3.40 (bet365) | 32% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (Midnite) | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 52% |
Our prediction is 1-1, the likeliest single scoreline at 13%, though we make Bristol City the more likely winner. A draw is in play, and 2-1 and 1-0 to the hosts are the next most likely results.
For goals, both teams to score is 56% on our numbers, and both sides have seen it happen in 60% of their games. Sheffield United's games have gone over 2.5 goals 70% of the time, the 5th highest rate in the league, against 50% for Bristol City.
On the player markets, the model has Harrison Burrows of Sheffield United as the likeliest shooter on the visiting side, with 1+ shots at 1.57 and 2+ at 3.50. For Bristol City, Rob Dickie to have a shot is 1.91.
Referee Ben Speedie has averaged 3.25 yellow cards a game across four matches this season.