Millwall welcome Lincoln City to The Den on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 12:30 UK. Millwall are 11th in the Championship on 14 points from 10 games, while Lincoln City sit 18th on 11 points. The visitors arrive after a 6-0 home defeat to West Ham on Wednesday, and they have scored fewer goals than anyone in the division.
Millwall lost their last home game, though, so this is no formality. The shot-takers in the home side's forward line are where much of the interest lies.
Millwall have won four, drawn two and lost four, scoring 16 and conceding 16. Their latest result was a 1-0 home defeat to Swansea on Tuesday, which followed a 1-0 win at Preston and a 2-2 draw with West Ham at The Den. At the back they have a good record: Millwall have kept clean sheets in 40% of games, the 2nd highest rate in the league, yet they are also the 5th highest for Over 2.5 goals at 70%. They also average 1.6 goals a game, the 8th most.
Lincoln City have won three, drawn two and lost five, scoring only 7 and conceding 17. They are averaging 0.7 goals a game, the fewest in the division, and 2.7 shots on target per game, the 2nd fewest. The 6-0 home loss to West Ham came four days after a 3-0 defeat at Sheffield United, and the 2-1 home loss to Swansea in September was the start of the slide. They have lost their last three, but the two wins before that were both away from home by the same 1-0 scoreline, at Bristol City and Preston.
Lincoln are also the 2nd most-fouling side in the league at 13.1 a game and the 2nd most-carded at 2.5 a game, which gives the referee plenty to do.
Millwall possible starting lineup:
Marschall; Osei-Tutu, Cooper, Taylor, Sturge; Metcalfe, Mazou-Sacko; Sykes, Neghli, Arconte; Dykes
Lincoln City possible starting lineup:
Wickens; Jefferies, Towler, Elerewe, Reach; Konak, Bayliss; Ogbene, Street, House; Draper
Taïryk Arconte has had a shot in each of Millwall's last eight games, averaging 2.1 a game, and a shot is 1.05 at bet365.
Lyndon Dykes has had a shot in seven straight, at 1.9 per game, and is also 1.05 at bet365 for a shot. He has put a shot on target in four of his last five, and that is 1.40 at bet365.
Jenson Metcalfe has made at least one tackle in all 10 Millwall games, averaging 2.3. That is the 4th longest tackling run in the Championship.
Adam Reach has made a tackle in seven straight games for Lincoln, and the model ranks him the likeliest on either side to have a shot, with 1+ shots at 1.62.
Freddie Draper has committed a foul in each of the last four games, averaging three per game, and a foul is 1.06 at midnite.
We back Millwall to win at 1.70 with Ladbrokes. Lincoln are 5.00 at bet365 and the draw is 3.90 at Ladbrokes. Both teams to score is 1.80 at bet365 and Over 2.5 goals is 1.91.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 1.70 (Ladbrokes) | 55% |
| Draw | 3.90 (Ladbrokes) | 25% |
| Lincoln City win | 5.00 (bet365) | 20% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 51% |
Our model projects 1.76 goals for Millwall and 0.97 for Lincoln City. 1-1 is the likeliest score at 12%, with 1-0 and 2-0 following at 11% and 10%. Our prediction is Millwall 1-1 Lincoln City, though we make the home side the more likely winner.
Millwall are projected 5.3 shots on target to Lincoln's 3.3, and the model likes Jake Cooper more than the market for a shot on target, with 1+ at 5.00.